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Wednesday November 9, 2005 - 15:20:25 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (9 November 2005)

The euro extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.1725 level after running out of steam around the $1.1790 level. The common currency has not yet tested yesterday’s two-year low dating to November 2003 but the pair stopped shy of testing short-term resistance around the $1.1795 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.2085 to $1.1710. The Financial Times published a story today that reported the European Central Bank will not accept EMU-12 countries’ sovereign debt as collateral if the country’s credit ratings fall below an “A” rating. If true, this represents the ECB’s latest attempt to rein in the fiscal problems faced by many eurozone countries, including Germany, France, Italy, and Greece. Such an action would affect the market’s perception of the euro as a major reserve currency. In addition to this story, the same factors that have been cited as euro-negative surfaced again overnight to push the pair lower including the riots and violence in France and the likelihood of higher interest rates in the U.S. Data released in the eurozone today saw October wholesale price fall 0.1% y/y m/m and were up 2/7% y/y. European Central Bank Weber today said price stability risks have increased in the eurozone and said the ECB must remain “vigilant.” Weber added a normalization of oil prices is currently “not foreseeable.” He also added ECB policymakers will not be pressured from dovish comments from EMU-12 finance ministers, such as the statement this week wherein they urged the central bank to “not make hasty policy decision.” Germany’s so-called Five Wise Men today reported they expect Germany’s budget deficit to print at 3.5% of GDP in 2005 and around 3.3% in 2006. Weber, ECB President Trichet, and ECB member Constancio will speak tomorrow. Other data released today saw Germany’s current account surplus come in at €7.4 billion in September, up from August’s surplus of €2.6 billion. Traders await tomorrow’s U.S. September trade deficit data. Euro offers are cited around the $1.1815/ 50 levels.

¥/ CNY

The yen moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the ¥116.85 level after encountering offers around the ¥117.65 level. Stops were triggered below the ¥117.10 level, representing the 23.6% retracement of the move from ¥113.00 to ¥118.35. Data released in Japan overnight saw September industrial machinery orders climb 62.9% y/y to ¥978.33 billion while October bank lending was off 0.7% y/y, the 94th consecutive monthly decline. Also, the October M2+CD money supply decelerated to +2.0% growth last month from +2.1% in September. The yen also notched gains on its major crosses and many believe the dollar and other majors will undergo a period of consolidation before traders may try to push the yen lower. Q3 GDP and October CPI data will be released on Friday. The retail inflation data are very important because positive year-on-year inflation is the main criterion Bank of Japan will cite when it finally begins to unwind its long-standing quantitative easing policy. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.25% today, just shy of a fresh 52-week high. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥116.30 level. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥137.60 level and was capped around the ¥138.30 level. The British pound and Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥203.75 and ¥89.15 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 8.0857, down from CNY 8.0867. People’s Bank of China reported it expects GDP will exceed 9.0% this year with CPI printing around 2.0%. PBOC also reported it will work to keep the yuan at a “reasonable and balanced level.” The yuan’s value will likely be on the agenda when President Bush and his administration visit China in about a week.

The British pound extended recent losses vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.7360 level after running out of steam around the $1.7460 level. The pair yesterday traded as low as the $1.7325 level, its weakest showing since July of this year. Technically, today’s high was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.7900 to $1.7325. It was reported today that the U.K.’s global trade deficit was at -£5.4 billion in September from an upwardly revised -£5.9 billion in August. Notably, the U.K.’s trade deficit with the European Union worsened from -£2.8 billion to -£3.1 billion. BRC released its October shop price index overnight and reported prices were off 0.96% m/m and 0.04% y/y. The downturn in prices partially reflects a slowdown in consumption, a worrying development in a services-oriented economy. Cable offers are cited around the $1.7460/ 1.7540 levels. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested bids around the £0.6740 level and was capped around the £0.6765 level.


The Swiss franc depreciated marginally vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.3160 level and was supported around the CHF 1.3080 level. Technically, the pair stopped about 25 pips short of testing the 23.6% retracement level of its move from CHF 1.2695 to CHF 1.3170. Traders await comments from Swiss National Bank officials Blattner and Hildebrand today. Dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.3060/ 1.2990 levels. The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids around the CHF 1.5420 level while the British pound gained ground vis-à-vis the Swiss franc and tested offers around the CHF 2.2890 level.


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