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Friday November 11, 2005 - 11:01:34 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• USD risk still to the upside against European currencies.
• USD-JPY looking more stable.
• Swedish CPI the only data feature today.

Market Outlook

There have been a number of opportunities for EUR-USD to mount a serious recovery this week –Wednesday’s hawkish comments from ECB officials, yesterday’s poor US trade data – but none has been taken. The overriding negative technical bias following the break below 1.1865 remains the main driving force and this suggests further weakness in the short-term.

There is a US holiday today, which may reduce market participation somewhat, although it will not necessarily be an impediment to downside. While it is not a settlement day for FX, trading will of course still take place and US equity markets are also open. Note also that the market could easily start preempting what will happen next week and the way the weekly chart will look if EUR-USD closes around current levels would set things up negatively for Monday. 1.1590 – the 38.2% retracement of the move from 0.8230 (2000 low) to 1.3666 (2004 high) - should be tested over the next couple of trading days and the ability of this level to hold will be key to whether the current move extends down towards 1.10 in the short-term.

Japanese data last night was fairly uneventful, although the numbers were generally a little stronger than expected and the economic recovery pattern remains firmly intact. The JPY is also getting some help against the USD because of the falling oil price and the fact that key resistance on USD-JPY at 118.41 (50% retracement of the 2002 to 2005 downmove from 135.14 to 101.68) remains intact. Any move below 116.85 in the near-term would warrant a bigger pullback towards 115.30. This would seem implausible perhaps if the USD manages to keep on rising against European currencies, but it would be a clear risk if the USD move does run out of momentum. Oil price developments are also likely to be influential.

Other EUR crosses are also suffering, with EUR-GBP having moved to 0.6705 late in NY yesterday as EUR-USD was testing the lows. A move (and preferably a close) below 0.6700 is required to see risk opening up towards 0.6610. Next week’s mass of UK data and BoE Inflation Report will be significant in determining the way things develop, although this may not change market perceptions about UK rate prospects, which are currently flat. Overall, we would still see a very big risk of a further cut in rates in February, although this is not likely to become apparent in the short-term.

EUR-NOK closed at 7.7200 yesterday (lowest level since March 2003), leaving downside risk to 7.60-7.65 next week. Above 7.7550 is required to neutralise this risk for the short-term.

Day Ahead
Sweden – CPI data is due but after the recent dampening of rate hike expectations by the Riksbank, it will be difficult for this data to enliven the market. Over the past couple of months, the core y/y rate has been at 1%, higher than the rates seen earlier in the year. EUR-SEK upside risk remains in place following the move above 9.60 and this would extend if 9.65 gives way.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

Market Holiday – US (but equity market is open)
SE CPI (Oct) y/y 08.30 +0.5%
SE CPI UND1X (Oct) y/y 08.30 +0.8%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US Federal budget (Oct) -$47.2bn -$51.5bn
JP GDP (Q3, prel) q/q +0.4% +0.3%
JP Domestic CGPI (Oct) y/y +1.9% +1.7%
JP Ind prod (Sep, final) m/m +0.4% +0.2%
JP Consumer confidence (Oct) 47.9 45.5 last
* Consensus unless stated
4-qtr moving average of q/q grow th rate

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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