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Friday November 11, 2005 - 12:52:30 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 11-11-05 ... 1240 GMT

Euro @ 1.1697/1700....Target 1.1551
R: 1.1719-55 / 1.1780-99 / 1.1821
S: 1.1684-71 / 1.1657 / 1.1586-83
Multi-layered Resistance between 1.1719-55. Hopefully the Euro will remain and Close below this today. That would be sufficient for a fall towards 1.1600-1550 next, maybe Monday itself.

Note that 1.1551 is the 200-week MA. The last time it was crossed (a positive crossover) was in the last 2 weeks of June-2002. There was no indecision and the MA was cut cleanly from below. The Euro remained bullish thereafter. Implication is that the 200-week MA may NOT be a very strong Support.

EUR 20K Short at 1.1790, SL 1.1800, TP 1.1561 (down from 1.1590).

EUR 20K Short at 1.1691, SL 1.1800, TP open. Bring the SL down to 1.1770 (instead of 1.1760) on BOTH positions as soon as the market trades 1.1660.

$-Yen @ 118.07/11....Upside break on Monday?
R: 118.22-29 / 118.50-65
S: 117.88-64 / 117.44 / 117.03
There's been decent buying above 117.60 itself today and Dollar-Yen is likely to test 118.27 again. It might remain in a 117.64-118.27 range today without attempting at a breakout, since the US is on holiday today. A range-break may be expected on Monday. Its difficult to say which side the break will take place. Technically, the market remains in an uptrend AND Euro-Yen has also been finding Support. As such, the chances of an upmove might be greater.
On the downside, a fall below 117.64 could target 117.44 and 117.03.

Euro-Yen @ 138.13/18....Resistance at 138.31
R: 138.39 / 138.58 / 138.90-139.04
S: 137.95-85 / 137.51-42 / 137.17-12
Solid bounce from 137.51, most of it accruing to Dollar-Yen. Immediate Resistance at 138.39 now which might hold for the day. A further rise towards 138.58 and 138.90 is possible, maybe on Monday, from where the Cross might retract to 138.20-10. Essentially, the Cross is ranged within 137.40-139.00 for a while.

Our Buy Order at 137.34 was not triggered and we have no trades/ orders now.

$-Swiss @ 1.3146/51....Buy dip
R: 1.3167-87 / 1.3258
S: 1.3119 / 1.3074
Muted movement so far today, with the Trend Resistance (joining the Highs of July and Sept 2004 with the July-2005 High) coming in between 1.3167-87, and the US being closed tonight. While the Resistance holds, a dip towards 1.3100 or 1.3079 is possible. But, if and when the Resistance breaks, a rise towards 1.3249 initially and then 1.33+ may be seen. Note that the 200-Week MA at 1.3410 is the target for this upmove.

Buy $25K at 1.3083, SL 1.3030, TP open

Cable @ 1.7382/87....Looking to sell
R: 1.7425-33 / 1.7481
S: 1.7362 / 1.7327 / 1.7275
The Cable has turned down from 1.7438 and has broken through the Support at 1.7393. While below 1.7400 there are chance of falling towards 1.7320 and below. We had expected some rise till 1.7460 in the morning, but the turn around indicates more immediate weakness

Sell GBP 15K at 1.7400, SL 1.7490, TP 1.7300.

Aussie @ 0.7304/09....Ranged between 0.7290-0.7337
R: 0.7328 / 0.7348-69
S: 0.7297-0.7273 / 0.7239-30
The Aussie turned bearish to 0.7299 today as expected, but the supports at 0.7293-87 are still in tact. If it fails to fall below 0.7284 the Aussie might remain ranged between 0.7290-0.7337. The bias of the said range is unclear as of now, as there are equal chances of a movement on the either sides.

We missed selling at 0.7341 early today, but would not like enter shorts for now.

Happy Trading!


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