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Friday April 30, 2004 - 12:20:25 GMT -

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Euro/Dollar made bullish engulfing before closing above the 200-day EMA

Daily Forex Technical Report 4-30-04

EUR/USD made bullish engulfing before closing above the 200-day EMA
USD/JPY retreated to major psychological level of 110

Technical Outlook

After facing tremendous pressures earlier in the session, EUR/USD made a convincing bullish engulfing pattern before closing above the 200-day EMA. Stochastic on weekly chart remains oversold, the reverse head and shoulder pattern on the hourly chart is complete, and we may very well see a counter trend rally over the next a few sessions. Bulls are still not out of the woods. They will have to defend 1.1800, low of 04/29 at all costs, while building a base above the 200-day EMA. On the upside, a close above 1.2080 is needed to send a convincing message to those looking to sell into this rally, as it would finally end the streak of lower highs we have seen since early March. USD/JPY cooled off after touching the upper Bollinger at 111.10. Bulls need to use the next few sessions to digest gains and build a base above the major psychological level of 110, a convergence of the 200-day SMA and 200-day EMA. YTD high at 112.35 is within reach and above that the sell-off we saw in mid-September will be very vulnerable to a short squeeze. On the defensive end, as long as the bulls can protect 108.75, low of the breakout candle on 04/28, they will be very much in control. A new YTD low for GBP/USD before the pair ran up nearly 200 points from the bottom. The primary trend remains weak but the strong price action we saw gave bulls hope for a short-term rebound. A realistic target would be the 10-day SMA and 38.2% fibo at 1.7800. A close above 4/28 high of 1.7975 is needed to complete a double bottom pattern, which would prevent Bears from testing the 200-day EMA at 1.7555. Upside momentum in USD/CHF is weakening as the pair fell below the 20-day SMA. Primary trend remains up but bulls need to be very concerned about 1.2825, a convergence of the 50-day SMA and low of 04/19. Breaking the upside trend line would be devastating to the buyers while they try to regroup and make another run above major psychological level of 1.3000, also the 200-day EMA. A sustained base above this level is needed to challenge YTD high at 1.3230. (See Chart of the Day for details)


Comment from 03/17

On 01/30 the EZ currency had a low at 2351 (slightly above our 2250/2300 area) and then rallied 579 pts higher to the 2930 High on 02/18 (slightly below our 2950/3000 area). It is also worth noting that the 2727 High offered intermediate resistance on 02/06 (the pair found a low at 2602,125pts lower on 02/07). From the 2930 high, the cross collapsed 874 pts lower to the 2056 low a few days back. Today an obvious dynamic triangle gives a neutral outlook to the pair. Volatility is bound to increase in the following days. Since we are sitting on strong S, a slight bullish bias is however present. Bulls could in fact step in the 2100/20 area to exploit the LT Trend S and strong Fibo confluence (23.6% Fibo from the Sep02 - 04 bull wave & 38.2% Fibo from the Sep - Feb bull wave). Below, tremendous S is to be found between the 1900 and the 2000 levels. The zone is the former breakout pt now S, 23.6% Fibo from the 02 - 04 bull wave, low BB and 200 SMA. Bears will probably stay on the sidelines for now but 2 areas are quite attractive: 2480/2500 the former S now R will be strengthened by the 23.6% Fibo from the Sep Feb bull wave while 2950/3000 is still an obvious play thanks to the LT Trend R and swing high.


On 03/18 the EZ currency had a high at 2435 (below the 2480/2500 zone) and found S a couple of days later on the 03/29 Low at 2046 (slightly below our 2100/20 zone). A quick rally occurred the following days. EURUSD is now in a downtrend but now reaching critical S. As a result, reversal players will step in at 1720/50 the 50% Fibo from the Mar03 - Mar 04 bull wave and Low BB. Only serious S below is 1.1400 the 76.2% Fibo from the Mar 03 - Mar 04 bull wave. Bears will add on bounces at 2150/2200 (50 SMA and 38.2% Fibo from the Feb - April bear wave). A break there would open the door to 1.2550/2600 where bears might step in to exploit the 38.2% Fibo from the Nov - Feb bull wave.


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