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Sunday November 13, 2005 - 06:57:51 GMT
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Forex: General Outlook for the Week beginning 14th November 2005

We now move into a week where we see a strong risk of the Dollar forming a strategic high. It may just stretch into next week, but with this reversal now imminent we should be on our guard in case the relevant wave structures fail to meet the ideal targets we have set. Indeed, as mentioned last week, having moved to within 100 points of the key corrective Dollar peaks at 1.1758 Euro and 1.3226 Swissie and new highs having been made recently, the Dollar has done the minimum necessary to form this high. We already have a slight uncertainty in the Pound since it has already met our expected target for the year at 1.7270 and the recovery from there does seem quite deep. Equally, there is an alternative target against the Yen at 117.94 and the overrun has not been excessive.

However, given that warning that is still worth keepiing at the back of your head, we still feel there on last attempt higher to come. One of the basic reasonings is the fact that USDJPY has breached the key 115.00-116.00 weekly pivot resistance and thus we feel that we need a little run higher to extend that breach. Equally, against the Euro and Swissie we still feel the shorter term wave structure still needs once final move higher. Against the Euro we still consider the 1.1458-74 area as very attractive while against the Swissie we are lowering our target from 1.3500 to around 1.3350 (see the long term analysis which appears supported by the shorter term structure). We are mixed on the Pound and will watch this one closely but feel a more thorough test of 1.7270 is still to come.

As we start the week after the long U.S. weekend we want to approach this cautiously. Will the Dollar attempt these new highs directly, or will there be a pullback? It is not impossible for a direct rally to occur and we would respect a quick move higher above Friday's highs. However, the entire picture looks a little out of syncronization with such a move and we feel there is a slightly greater risk of a corrective decline first. We describe these in the individual analyses but we could find these resepctive pullbacks being moderately deep with 1.1810-30 Euro, 1.2965-1.3000 Swissie, 1.7515-50 Pound and against the Yen 117.17-34 at least while there is a small risk of seeing a dip as far as 116.48-84.

Have a profitable week.

Ian Copsey

 

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