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Monday November 14, 2005 - 11:07:53 GMT
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EUR seeing relief rally as German coalition crystallizes. Relief may extend a bit higher for EUR/USD.


MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
* Germany announces formation of new grand coalition government. The first measures announced are reduction of government spending by €10 Billion and reduction of €5 Billion in Tax Breaks. (and higher incomes will be taxed 45% rather than 42%)
* China’s October Retail Sales rose 12.8 percent - China is taking measures to encourage more consumer spending (only 30% of economy at present compared to 60%+ norm elsewhere)
* Japan Current Account (on adjusted basis) for Sep. at ¥1624B vs. ¥1419B expected
* Japan Department Store Sales fall –1.5% in October

Market Moves
EUR was stronger across the board last night, with EUR/JPY breaking higher.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The EUR relief rally overnight looks like a classic example of sell the rumor buy the fact. In other words: the market has been a bit pessimistic about the Euro of late due to the political mess in Germany and the prospects for an ineffective political coalition whose only legislation to date was a raising of the VAT (hardly the kind of policy decision the market wants to see for increasing the chances of a stronger German economic recovery). The further measures that have come out of this coaltion over the weekend suggest a strong focus on austerity (controlling the deficit) rather than prosperity (encouraging growth). While the austerity measures are extremely important for market stability (Germany and France's budget deficits have not risen much from recent lows as low as -4% of GDP in the last couple of years - while US budget deficits are quickly shrinking toward -2% of GDP) the market would rather see a bigger focus on spending cuts than the example of raising taxes on high wage earners. So - while clearly the EUR is seeing some relief now that political uncertainty has eased, the market will want to see more in the labor reform and spending cut column and less in the "more taxes" column if the EUR is to move any higher.

The JPY continues to look desperately weak, and one wonders when the central banks will begin grumbling about this development. I suspect very soon. USD/JPY has no business being this high and at some point we will see a nasty reversal in that trend. Also - Bush is off to Asia this week, first to Japan and then Korea and then China. China seems to be taking measures to increase consumer spending in its economy in an effort to reduce the current account surplus and encourage a more balanced economy. Will China try to express good will on the undervalued Yuan issue by announcing some kind of widening of the trade band ahead of Bush's visit as a good will gesture? Hard to say - but the time is ripe for this kind of action, even if we have been disappointed in the past. Be careful on the JPY.

On the economic data front this week, we will focus especially on the market reaction to Tuesday's US PPI and Wed's US CPI, but we're also interested in the housing numbers on Thursday (Will we ever see weakness there?). Here's a brief rundown of the US data this week:
• Tuesday: PPI and Advance Retail Sales for October, Empire Manufacturing for November
• Wednesday: CPI, TICs data (Net Foreign Securities Purchases) for September, weekly Energy inventories
• Thursday: Housing Starts and Building Permits, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, Philadelphia Fed

The other ad hoc event of the week will be Ben Bernanke's first confirmation hearings before the Senate tomorrow. Mr. Bernanke has announced that he would like more transparency at the Fed - especially in terms of inflation targeting. One also wonders if Mr. Bernanke will be more interested in more transparent language in general as Fed chairman - this would be in sharp contrast to Greenspan's famous "oracular" speeches and statements that left so much room for interpretation and spin that a new word was coined: "Greenspeak".

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Saxo Bank A/S.
www.saxobank.com

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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