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Monday November 14, 2005 - 12:09:20 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD-JPY above 118.41 level in Europe.
• EUR-USD steadies overnight, but risk is still to the downside.
• Key range parameters this week come in at 1.1590 and 1.1900 – 1.1670 and 1.1800 within that.
• UK PPI softens – UK RICS house prices and New Zealand retail sales out this evening.

Market Outlook

USD-JPY has been the main mover in Europe this morning, breaking through resistance at 118.41 (50% retracement of the 2002 to 2005 downmove from 135.14 to 101.68). Key now will be whether it can hold this ground through the US session. If it can there is every chance of a test of 120.00 in the days ahead.

EUR-USD stabilised further during the Asian session, but was fairly quiet during the European morning. Such developments do little to change the underlying bias to the downside for EURUSD. 1.1795-1.1800 needs to break to threaten this state of affairs and additional barriers come in at 1.1830 and 1.1865 1.1900, the latter being pivotal. More likely is a renewed test of the downside as underlying vulnerabilities are pursued further. Last week’s low at 1.1670 is the first decent level on the downside, but 1.1590 - the 38.2% retracement of the move from 0.8230 (2000 low) to 1.3666 (2004 high) – should be approached in the next couple of days.

IMM positioning data (for the close on Tuesday Nov 8th) is out later today (a day late because of Friday’s US holiday) and this will be closely watched to see how short of EUR-USD specs have become after the break of key levels seen on Friday Nov 4th. This could be significant in determining market sentiment about how much downside potential remains on EUR-USD in the short-term. As of Nov 1st, IMM specs were still small long of EUR-USD.

UK PPI data for October came out much weaker than expected, with the y/y rate for core output prices dropping to +1.3% from +2.1% in September. Scrap metal prices fell sharply m/m after rising sharply m/m last October, leaving a very negative ‘base effect’ for the y/y rate. This will help to soften some of the concerns felt by some members of the MPC about the inflation outlook. Tonight also sees the release of the latest RICS house price survey and the recent negative balances are likely to be pegged back further as more evidence emerges of a stabilisation in prices.

Day Ahead
New Zealand – retail sales data is due and the strength in the consumer sector has been the main driver of RBNZ policy tightening. Sales were up only 0.2% last month, although this was after strong rises in both June (+1.3%) and July (+1.5%). A strong number may be required to sustain the NZD gains of last week. The move below 0.6850 this morning was a negative development. This level needs to be won back to stabilise the situation, while 0.6915 is the main barrier to more gains.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

NZ Retail trade (Sep) m/m 16.45 -0.5%
JP Bush visits Japan (2 days)
GB RICS house prices (Oct) 19.01 -18

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Current account (Sep, sa) ¥1.62trn ¥1.42trn
ES GDP (Q3) q/q +0.8% +0.8%
GB PPI input (Oct) m/m +0.3% 0.0%
GB PPI output (Oct) m/m -0.1% +0.2%
GB PPI output core (Oct) y/y +1.3% +1.9%
IT Ind prod (Sep) m/m -1.0% -0.2%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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