Friday April 21, 2017 - 17:23:26 GMT
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Sunday French Vote Could Be Pivotal For Euro
John M. Bland, MBA
French Presidential Election In Spotlight Sunday April 23 will see the first round of the French Presidential Elections. There is a long list of contenders running, but the main focus is on the top four candidates. To win, one candidate must garner 50% of the vote. If no one wins 50% of votes cast, there will be a second round contest between the two top vote getters on May 2 to determine the next President. There virtually is no chance that any candidate will garner the required 50% with the top four candidates all polling within the margin of error in the polls.
Currently, Emmanuel Macron, the center-right pro-EU is in the lead with 23% in the polls. Marine Le Pen, who is the Far-Right candidate, has 22%. She wants to freeze immigration and end the Schengen agreement. Francois Fillon polls 20%, while far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon is getting 19%. Markets would prefer to see the extreme candidates on both sides eliminated in the Round 1 vote. Exit polls from the vote are expected to start to be released Sunday at 20:00 CET.
U.K. Prime Minister Calls June 8 Snap Election On Tuesday, U.K news hit the markets with a surprise announcement by PM May for a "snap election" on June 8. Recent polls had shown her with an unprecedented 20 point lead over the opposition Labor Party. Thus May decided to seize on this as an ideal opportunity for Conservatives to try increase their majority in Parliament and thus give the PM a stronger hand in "Brexit" negotiations with the EU. On Wednesday, the government got the required 66% vote needed for the “snap election” to be approved.
I feel the snap election has the potential to be a game changer for the GBP. According to the weekly CFTC Commitment of Trader Reports, there are a large number of GBP shorts who would be at risk of being blown out should basic sentiment about the currency changes. So be alert.
WEEKLY EVENT RISK Calendar:
Sun 23 Apr
00:00 FR- Presidential Election
Mon 24 Apr
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
Tue 25 Apr
14:00 US- CB Confidence Survey
Wed 26 Apr
06:00 DE- Retail Sales
12:30 CA- Retail Sales
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 27 Apr
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
12:30 US- Durable Goods
Fri 28 Apr
08:30 GB- GDP
08:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final U of M Survey
Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
John M. Bland co-founding partner www.global-view.com
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