Tuesday November 15, 2005 - 01:07:42 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 15th November 2005 Price:
Resistance: 118.83 ... 119.18 ... 119.57 ... 119.91
Support....: 118.60 ... 118.30 ... 117.89 ... 117.62
We need a break above 119.18-30 to keep the upside intact but pullbacks should remain above 118.37-44
Price has broken directly higher and keeps the underlying bullish structure intact. There may be an early attempt at 119.18-31 this morning but this will likely hold for a pullback. However, while the correction holds above the 118.25-44 area we feel the main influence will remain higher and should see follow through above 119.31 and onto 119.91 at least and we suspect higher. Next major resistance is at 120.62.
The break above 118.37 suggests we should keep any bearish trades for pullbacks only. There does appear to be risk of a short term peak around 119.18-31 which could cause a move back to 118.37-44 (max 118.25) but we would not want to hold on to this position for too long. Thus, only a break back below 118.25 would provide a more choppy picture and allow losses to extend towards 117.62 and possibly 117.35.
Elliott Wave Comments:
14th November 2005
Having noted the bearish daily cycles we are a little less inclined to the immediate upside that we had indicated on Friday. We have therefore considered an alternative wave structure which would allow for a second dip lower before the final anticipated rally occurs.
The bullish scenario counts Friday's 118.25 high as Wave -i- of Wave [c]. This would mean that Wave -ii- should hold above the 61.8%-76.4% retracement area at 117.17-34 and then accelerate higher in Wave -iii-.
The shorter term bearish scenario counts Friday's 118.25 peak as Wave b of a flat correction and thus would allow a move back to 116.84 at least and possibly to the full 50% retracement in Wave [b] to 116.48.
Either way we still cautiously retain the bullish wave count and only below the 115.97 pivotal area would imply the peak for the year has been seen at 118.37.
15th November 2005
The bullish scenario appears to be correct and that means we shall label the 117.63 low as Wave -ii- and thus we can generate targets for Wave -iii-. We feel that a move to 119.18-31 will form Wave a of Wave -iii- and while any pullback holds above 118.25-44 we consider the main risk remains higher in Wave c towards 119.91 minimum where Wave -iii- is equal to 161.8% of Wave -i- and probably as high as 120.62 where Wave [c] is equal to Wave [a] and probably 121.32 where Wave -iii- is equal to 261.8% of Wave -i-.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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