Wednesday November 16, 2005 - 00:57:47 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 16th November 2005 Price:
Resistance: 119.08 ... 119.41 ... 119.57 ... 119.91
Support....: 118.71 ... 118.52 ... 118.25 ... 117.85
We feel a dip to 118.52-71 (max 118.25) is possible before the uptrend resumes
Yesterday's initial rally was a little slower than expected and did breach the 119.31 target by 10 points but we are seeing the anticipated pullback. We see good support that should hold above 118.52-71 - but no lower than 118.25. While this area supports there is a slight chance of a sideways correction but overall we will be looking for a resumption of the uptrend to above 119.41 and 119.91 and then to 120.62 at least though this may not occur today.above 119.31 and onto 119.91 at least and we suspect higher. Next major resistance is at 120.62.
The pullback from 119.41 looks broadly in line with expectations even if there was a 10 point breach of our 119.31 target. We feel the majority of the pullback is complete and see room for losses only to 118.52 and maximum 118.25. Thus a stronger bearish stance will require a move below 118.25 which, if seen, would extend losses down to 117.82-89 at least. Next support is at 116.84-117.00.
Elliott Wave Comments:
15th November 2005
The bullish scenario appears to be correct and that means we shall label the 117.63 low as Wave -ii- and thus we can generate targets for Wave -iii-. We feel that a move to 119.18-31 will form Wave a of Wave -iii- and while any pullback holds above 118.25-44 we consider the main risk remains higher in Wave c towards 119.91 minimum where Wave -iii- is equal to 161.8% of Wave -i- and probably as high as 120.62 where Wave [c] is equal to Wave [a] and probably 121.32 where Wave -iii- is equal to 261.8% of Wave -i-.
16th November 2005
The move to 119.41 appears to have completed Wave -a- of Wave -iii- and thus we look for Wave -b- to remain above 118.52-71 (max 118.25). This may cause a sideways consolidation for a day or so, but we look for the uptrend to resume to the 121.32-40 target by late this week or early next week. This should then cause a pullback in Wave -iv-.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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