Thursday November 17, 2005 - 01:16:19 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 17th November 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1700 ... 1.1723 ... 1.1745 ... 1.1778
Support....: 1.1668 ... 1.1640 ... 1.1603 ... 1.1570
Slightly mixed though view 1.1722-45 as key resistance and 1.1603-40 as support
We never saw any higher than the 1.1737 peak acheived yesterday morning but then failure just above the 1.1640 low. We need to be flexible today but we tend to favor a range trading day although this does have risk of dipping below 1.1640. Thus, if we see an early decline down to 1.1603 and bounce, look for this to move back up to the 1.1737-45 area (max 1.1778-88). Any earlier break above 1.1700 would allow a test of 1.1722 but this needs to break to avoid a much tighter range. Any move above 1.1722-25 would extend gains towards 1.1745 and 1.1778.
With 1.1737 providing the peak, the dip below 1.1700 did allow a deeper move to 1.1640-50 which has held thus far. We now need the 1.1700 level to hold to keep the pressure downwards with a break of 1.1640 signaling losses to 1.1603. However, at the moment we feel we need to consider the chance of this holding and causing a reversal back above 1.1700 again. Thus only clean break of 1.1600 would cause direct losses down to 1.1547 and possibly even the major 1.1458-74 target area.
Elliott Wave Comments:
17th November 2005
There now seems little prospect of any deeper correction than the 1.1737-45 area (max 1.1778 where Wave -iv- would have retraced 23.6%). We feel that this Wave -iv- will either be a flat or an expanded flat (which would imply a low around 1.1603). However, once this correction is complete look for a final ABC decline to the 1.1454-78 which we feel should happen around the weekend.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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