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Friday June 2, 2017 - 16:28:45 GMT
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British Election, ECB Decision And U.S. Jobs Surprise

John M. Bland, MBA


U.K. Vote Has Become A Horse Race When PM Theresa May called for a “Snap Election ” several weeks ago, the Conservatives initially were 20 percentage points ahead of Labour and seen easily picking up a number of extra seats in the election slated for Thursday June 8. Somehow the Conservatives lead in one poll has dwindled to as low as 3 percentage points late in the week just ending. The talk is that many are unhappy with the Conservative Party, but prefer current PM May over Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn . Our private polls have been showing May and the Conservatives with a comfortable lead. They recently showed much the same for the pro-Brexit side in that referendum. We are cautious about what to expect. Markets would prefer to see PM May with a clear mandate heading into what will be tough negotiations with Europe over Brexit conditions. The GBP would not like to see May lose power.

ECB Expected To Hold Policy Steady On Thursday The ECB is scheduled to announce its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday as well. We have been getting mixed signals from the European central Bank recently with President Draghi continuing to speak out in favor of existing policies which are supportive of the Eurozone economy. On the other hand, there have been several “leaks” from unnamed sources suggesting that the central bank is preparing to consider a policy tightening at this conference. The opposing narratives suggest that there must be a policy conflict at the central bank. I feel Draghi will have the final say (and votes) on policy.

Surprising Weakness In U.S. May Employment Report Friday saw the markets blindsided by weaker than expected May payroll data. Following an outsized gain of 253K in the ADP May employment estimate, a Non-Farm Payroll gain of only 138K disappointed traders especially after the data for the previous two months were revised down by a combined 66K. Furthermore, Average Hourly Earnings remained mired at the 0.2% level where they have been for years. The rolling three month average for Jobs growth for the last four months has been 204K, 166K, 148K and 121K. This pattern could be seen as worrisome by policy-makers. The question now must be whether these data will impact the Fed policy decision on June 14, which was seen as a lock for a Fed rate hike. Following the data, the yield on the 10-yr note made a new yearly low (briefly) of 2.15%.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 5 Jun
All Day Global Service PMIs
Tue 6 Jun
04:30 AU- Reserve Bank Decision
Wed 7 Jun
09:00 EZ- GDP
14:30 US- EIA Crude
23:30 JP- GDP
Thu 8 Jun
00:00 UK- Elections
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
Fri 9 Jun
12:30 CA- Employment

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

John M. Bland co-founding partner www.global-view.com

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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