Friday November 18, 2005 - 01:07:51 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 18th November 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1776 ... 1.1799 ... 1.1824 ... 1.1861
Support....: 1.1737 ... 1.1713 ... 1.1664 ... 1.1640
There appears to be risk to 1.1800-25 (max 1.1862) from where the downtrend should resume
The break of 1.1700 has led to further gains and these do not look comoplete. We look for 1.1713-37 to support and for the move higher to reach the 1.1800-24 area which we feel will cap. However, until the 1.1700 area is broken on the downside we should be aware of a small risk of extension to 1.1862 which should cap. Only above 1.1862 would extend gains to 1.1952.
With the break above 1.1700 we need accept the risk of further gains but we tend to feel these will find a cap between 1.1800-24. Look to sell this test but stops need be above 1.1865. A break below 1.1700 will assist to allow a move back to 1.1640. Further losses will require a breach here and allow losses to extend towards 1.1547 and if this turns aggressive to the 1.1458-74 target. However, this does look as if it will need until Monday to achieve.
Elliott Wave Comments:
17th November 2005
There now seems little prospect of any deeper correction than the 1.1737-45 area (max 1.1778 where Wave -iv- would have retraced 23.6%). We feel that this Wave -iv- will either be a flat or an expanded flat (which would imply a low around 1.1603). However, once this correction is complete look for a final ABC decline to the 1.1454-78 which we feel should happen around the weekend.
18th November 2005
Gains seen and we feel we should allow for a move above 1.1778 to the 1.1800-24 area where Wave -iv- will have retraced between 38.2% and 41.4% of Wave -iii-. This would set up a Wave -v- that would have appropriate projections to the 1.1458-74 area.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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