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Friday November 18, 2005 - 11:44:40 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Overall USD bias remains to upside despite tentative signs of momentum loss on EUR-USD.
• Official comments hinder EUR.
• GBP builds on the break seen on Wednesday – JPY facing up to key area against USD.
• No major data releases today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD reverted lower in Asia and Europe after the push higher seen during yesterday’s US session. This was helped in part by comments attributed to the Italian deputy Economy Minister Baldassarri, who said that an ECB rate hike would not be justified until the EUR hit parity against the USD. A senior G7 source cited by Market News also said that Eurozone fundamentals remained weak and that the ECB would not be uncomfortable with EUR weakness against the USD as long as it was orderly.

Yesterday’s EUR-USD move reflected a feeling in the market that recent weakness was in danger of running out of momentum, having failed on three occasions in the 1.1640 area. Indeed, given the way momentum indicators like MACDs tend to work the downmove will need to extend further between now and Tuesday/Wednesday to avoid a situation where the market may smell some corrective activity. However, this looks to be a very short-term issue and the overall downside bias remains firmly intact. As noted on a number of occasions recently, the 1.1850-1.1900 area needs to be won back to shift the current bias and intermediate barriers come in at 1.1800 and 1.1760 (yesterday’s high). Below 1.1640 would expose Fibonacci support at 1.1590. Downside remains favoured. The last couple of Fridays have tended to reveal the underlying weaker bias in the market, so it will be interesting to see what materialises today. There is nothing in the way of data releases with the potential to influence USD sentiment. The strong equity market performance seen in the US yesterday lends further support to the stronger USD story.

The JPY has also been fairly soft overnight, with USD-JPY reaching 119.40, close to the 119.56 high from earlier in the week. The 119.50-120.00 area is clearly in danger of breaking in the short-term, with risk up to 122-125, although this may require some additional corresponding weakness in EUR-USD.

GBP continues to look vulnerable against the USD after the independent momentum derived from the significant break in cable below the previous 2005 low at 1.7273 on Wednesday. There is clear risk into the 1.66-1.71 area in the week ahead, especially if the USD continues to strengthen against the EUR. EUR-GBP managed to move back below 0.6825 for a time this morning after moving above there yesterday, but risks remain on the upside. Above 0.6840 is required to suggest a move close to 0.6900. Today’s mortgage lending data was a little softer than the market had expected, but impact was minimal.

Diary
Da CA Wholesale sales (Sep) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
ta/event EDT Consensus*


Latest data Actual Consensus*
DE PPI (Oct) y/y +4.6% +4.0%
FR GDP (Q3) q/q +0.7% +0.7%
FR Current account (Sep) -€2.2bn -€2.1bn
GB BBA mortgage lending (Oct) +£4.3bn +£4.9bn last
GB PSNCR (Oct) -£5.0bn -£1.3bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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