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Friday November 18, 2005 - 13:12:35 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 18-11-05....1306 GMT

Euro @ 1.1684/7....Ranged now. Bearish below 1.1622
R: 1.1711 / 1.1757-77
S: 1.1650 / 1.1637-22
The Euro remained below the 1.1766-81 Resistance mentioned in the morning and has fallen almost 100 pips from there. Be that as it may, it remains ranged between 1.1635-1777 overall. Although little movement is expected tonight, a break below 1.1637-22 would indicate serious resumption of the downtrend and target 1.1500-1495. No trades for tonight, though.

$-Yen @ 119.17/21....Caught between 118.50-119.65
R: 119.38-49 / 119.65
S: 118.99-91 / 118.60
Dollar-Yen shows a little more bullishness than Euro-Dollar is showing bearishness. BUT, it needs to break Resistances at 119.49 and 119.65 to attract the next wave of Buyers. While the market remains below 119.49 and 119.65, it may try to break the immediate Support at 118.91 and target 118.60. Overall, it is more likely that the market will remain ranged between 118.60-119.50 on Monday as well.

Euro-Yen @ 139.26/31....Wide unpredictable range
R: 138.55 /139.88 / 140.14-19
S: 138.95-70 / 138.48-46
Trading is likely to continue to be erratic and unpredictable between 138-140 for some more days. The range may be narrowed to 138.70-139.88 for today and Monday. There are times when the market is just too difficult to trade. We just have to swallow our pride and sit back at such times. Capital preservation becomes more important at such times.

$-Swiss @ 1.3235/40....Up, down, up. Down? Stay out
R: 1.3288
S: 1.3154
Wednesday was up, Thursday was down, tody has been up so far, within a range of 1.3154-3288. Common factor on all three days has been the presence of Sellers above 1.3261. The overall uptrend remains intact and there's no "System Sell signal" as yet, but buying has been as unprofitable as selling. Fresh clear buying can come in only above 1.3300 now. Similarly, in case of a fall below 1.3154, we may expect Sellers to dominate and push the Dollar down towards 1.3000.

Cable @ 1.7142/7....Still bearish
R: 1.7174-81-98 / 1.7221 / 1.7247
S: 1.7098 / 1.7065
We went Short at 1.7115 and have just been stopped out at 1.7155. Could we have sold earlier in the day, say at 1.7160 in the morning? Unfortunately, that was not a clear sell signal at that time. Should we have kept a wider Stop after selling at 1.7115? Possibly, but even wide stops have been getting triggered in the very choppy conditios of the last few days.

The charts remain bearish while below 1.7198 and 1.7221, but our attempts to sell have come a cropper twice in the last 3 days. Should the bearishness persist (it may), a further fall towards 1.7065 is possible today. We are not participating in the market though.

Aussie @ 0.7314/19....Ranged between 0.7285-0.7356
R: 0.7315-19 / 0.7326-38 / 0.7359
S: 0.7287 / 0.7248 / 0.7212
The Aussie continues to be in indecision between 0.7285-0.7356 today and might continue to be so, for the rest of the day. The minor up trend formed this week from 0.7262 to 0.7356 might provide for a corrective rally (for the bear trend which started 27th October 05) if it breaks above 0.7356. This however has to be waited for. On the other hand if the Aussie closes lower between the said range (0.7285-0.7356), it could be vulnerable to fall below 0.7285 and turn bearish towards 0.7250.

Happy Trading!


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