Sunday November 20, 2005 - 07:29:44 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 21st November 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.3160 ... 1.3202 ... 1.3224 ... 1.3272
Support....: 1.3133 ... 1.3109 ... 1.3084 ... 1.3067
While there is still risk of a dip to 1.3067-84 we feel this will trigger a return to the upside
An earlier sharp move higher on Friday proved a false break and ended the day having seen a new corrective low. Due to this we must be a little cautious first thing this week and while 1.3160-1.3202 caps we must still acknowledge the risk of a dip to the 1.3067-84 area. However, while this caps or on a clean break above 1.3202 we shall look for the upside to return. This should cause a move to the 1.3272-84 highs but may cause a pullback before further gains with the next resistance at 1.3347.
The sharp losses from an earlier recovery on Friday frustrate and do appear to suggest that a second dip lower is possible. While 1.3160-1.3202 caps we see risk of a decline below Friday's low at 1.3133 which should follow-through to the 1.3067-84 support area which we feel should hold. Next support is at 1.3022 and only below here heightens the chance that we have already seen a major high. Next support is at 1.2976-85.
Elliott Wave Comments:
18th November 2005
With the depth of pullback from 1.3284 we have been forced once again to change our Wave -iii- peak which now looks to have occurred at 1.3284. While this has been a bit frustrating we feel the underlying wave structure still remains bullish with 1.3067-1.3083 looking to provide a base to Wave -iv- representing a 38.2% -41.4% retracement. From here we shall look for a three wave rally, the first to the 1.3284 area and then to the 1.3347 level at least (being a 61.8% projection in Wave [v])and we tend to favor higher to the 66.67% projection at 1.3434. We should also note the wave equality target where Wave [C] is equal to Wave [A] at 1.3500.
21st November 2005
The failure to break higher concerns but until the 50% pullback in Wave -iv- at 1.3022 breaks we feel the risk is still higher in Wave -v- of this final rally higher. We feel the higher support at 1.3067-84 (representing 38.2% and 41.4% retracements) are likely to support and trigger gains.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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