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Monday November 21, 2005 - 12:01:33 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Thanksgiving thinned out week could compound short-term ECB related support for EUR…
• …but overall downside bias remains intact.
• GBP vulnerability to continue this week.
• Canadian retail sales, Trichet feature today – Japanese data tonight.

Market Outlook

D Trichet’s comments on Friday have helped to underpin the EUR through Asian/European trading (helping it above 1.1800 resistance) with the market perhaps looking for more from him when he speaks today (see below). This could turn out to be a fairly quiet week. There are few US releases and Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday will also seriously disrupt activity (on Wednesday and Friday as well as Thursday). If this contributes to a position trimming environment, there could be some further upside seen on EUR-USD, although this is unlikely to extend beyond 1.1850-1.1900 and other barriers come in at 1.1830-40. Latest IMM positioning data shows the net short position on EUR-USD for spec accounts widening to over 13k contracts, although this is in no way excessive. Overall, we still expect further (possibly substantial) downside for EUR-USD, although this may not happen until the Dec 1 ECB meeting is out of the way. Key supports are at 1.1640, 1.1590 and 1.1500 – intermediate support at 1.1760.

GBP remains vulnerable following the new 2005 low recorded by cable last week and the fact that rates will now be heading higher in both the US and the Eurozone. Positive news is needed to offer GBP some support and this may not be forthcoming. EUR-GBP has initial risk to 0.6900 over the next day or two.

Day Ahead
Canada – retail sales data has been fairly solid in recent months and this release is unlikely to seriously disrupt expectations about further BoC tightening.

Eurozone – Trichet speaks at the Economic and Monetary Affairs committee and after Friday’s comment the market has been left in little doubt about the likelihood of a December 1 rate
hike. On Friday he said that rates would be ‘augmented moderately’, suggesting that Dec will see 25bp and that further rate cuts may be fairly limited. However, it is on this latter issue that the market will be looking for more clarification and where there will possibly be some room for a market reaction. On the face of it, the EUR may need a firm signal about future rate hike expectations, but even if Trichet does come across as hawkish, will the market really be confident in believing that the Eurozone economy can withstand more than 75bp worth of rate hikes? This may limit EUR upside.

Japan – activity indices are out tonight and as one can see on the chart the 3-mth moving averages for these indices suggests that the uptrend of recent years has just about remained intact.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Retail sales (Sep) m/m 08.30 -0.1%
CA Retail sales ex-autos (Sep) m/m 08.30 +0.8%
EU Trichet testifies at Euro Plmnt 08.30
US Leading indicators (Oct) m/m 10.00 +0.8%
US Fed’s Moskow on economy 17.30
JP Tertiary index (Sep) m/m 18.50 -0.4%
JP All-industry index (Sep) m/m 18.50 -0.1%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
GB Rightmove house prices (Sep) y/y +4.0% +1.5% last
IT Ind orders (Sep) m/m -3.3% -0.7%
GB ODPM house prices (Sep) y/y +3.3% +3.0%
EU Trade balance (Sep, prel) €1.2bn -€0.3bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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