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Monday November 21, 2005 - 13:07:52 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 21-11-05 ....1259 GMT

Euro @ 1.1812/15....Cautiously Long
----------------------------------------
R: 1.1837 / 1.1869-79 / 1.1897
S: 1.1792-80 / 1.1766-59 / 1.1729-24
The Euro has risen above 1.1800 and is on its way to test 1.1850-69. NOTE that 1.1874-79 is a strong Resistance and ought not to be broken on first testing. While the Euro remains below 1.1879-1900, the overall Bear trend remains in force. Only above 1.1900 would the bearishness come into doubt. For now, even a failure to rise to 1.1850 would be damaging.

Holding:
EUR 20K Long at 1.1803, SL 1.1780, TP 1.1850


$-Yen @ 118.88/92.....Ripe for profit-taking?
--------------------------------------------
R: 119.03-12 / 119.36-46
S: 118.73-66 / 118.47 / 118.29
Dollar-Yen rose to 119.46 only today and has fallen back from there. This suggests lack of buying above 119.20 and there are increasing chances of a fall towards 118.30 initially and then down to 117.90.

Order:
Sell $25K at 119.13, SL 119.63, TP 118.10


Euro-Yen @ 140.45/50.....Could drop towards 140
------------------------------------------------
R: 140.77-80 / 141.21
S: 140.33 / 140.00-139.97
The Cross found Resistance near 140.70 as expected (High was 140.77) and has dipped a bit. We find good Resistance in the 140.80-141.21 region and would be reluctant to take fresh huge Longs near here. Instead, there are greater chances of a fall back towards 140 today and lower tomorrow.




$-Swiss @ 1.3107/12.....Downside correction to 1.3012?
-----------------------------------------------------
R: 1.3118-24-33 / 1.3166 / 1.3195
S: 1.3090-79 / 1.3039 / 1.3016-05
Dollar-Swiss has fallen below the 1.3133-18 support region (now Resistance) mentioned in the morning. With this, there are chances of a further fall towards 1.3039 and 1.3012 over today-tomorrow. Immediate Support at 1.3090-79 needs to be broken for this to happen.

Order:
Sell $25K at 1.3130, SL 1.3179, TP 1.3040.


Cable @ 1.7202/7...Buying now
--------------------------------
R: 1.7228 / 1.7282-84 / 1.7315
S: 1.7179-53 / 1.7117 / 1.7084
The pair is now attempting to break the resistance at 1.7228 from the last few hours. If it succeeds, then a rally to 1.7280 may be seen, which is an important Trend Resistance (for the current overall downtrend). Immediate support is seen at 1.7179-53, which is expected to hold for the rest of the day. If the Cable breaks the 1.7280 Resistance (it may), we may expect further rise to 1.7371 by tomorrow.

Trade:
Buy Cable 15K at current level, SL 1.7155, TP open. As soon as the market trades 1.7270, bring SL up to 1.7200




Aussie @ 0.7370/5....Now Support at 0.7356
-------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7385-0.7400 / 0.7419-25
S: 0.7356 / 0.7332-20 / 0.7311
The Aussie broke above the earlier resistance at 0.7356, which now turns into a strong support today. However critical resistances await at 0.7385-0.7400 if the Aussie starts rising again. If it breaks above this resistance (0.7400), there could be a strong up move towards 0.7500 in a couple of days. Failure to break above 0.7400, may trigger a dip back to 0.7335.

Order:
Buy AUD 30K at 0.7360, SL 0.7320, TP 0.7390




Happy Trading!


 

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