Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 01:20:51 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 23rd November 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.7206 ... 1.7243 ... 1.7261 ... 1.7295
Support....: 1.7159 ... 1.7104 ... 1.7064 ... 1.7048
The 1.7261-95 is now critical but we feel should hold on first attempt
While the losses below 1.7096 were initially encouraging the reversal from 1.7064 came as a surprise and we may therefore have seen the intermediate low for which we had a target of 1.7020-48. Thus the pressure does appear to be higher although we may have seen the majority of the first rally. While 1.7159-75 supports we feel there is risk of a further attempt higher but we see initial resistance at 1.7243 and more likely the 1.7261-95 area which we feel will cap for today. Thus only breach of 1.7295 would extend gains to 1.7342-65.
With the losses below 1.7096 being restricted to the 1.7064 level we feel that we may have to wait a little longer before a final decline. Today we see risk of a recovery from 1.7159-75 towards 1.7243-61 at least and possibly 1.7295. However, we shall expect a drift lower from there to the 1.7140-60 area. Only below here would threaten the 1.7096 and 1.7064 lows once again and potentially re-instate the 1.7020-48 target.
Elliott Wave Comments:
23rd November 2005
The recovery from 1.7064 means one of two things... Either we saw an expanded flat correction from 1.7243 which would imply a peak between 1.7243-61 with subsequent loss of 1.7140 and follow-through below 1.7100 and 1.7064 to 1.6985; or we saw an earlier completion of Wave -iii- lower and thus we can expect a 38.2%-41.4% retracement to 1.7342-61 in Wave -iv-. (maximum pullback should be at 50% implying 1.7428). Thus we need observe the reaction at 1.7243-61.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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