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Wednesday November 23, 2005 - 10:48:28 GMT
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FOMC minutes show some Fed members getting uncomfortable in their seats with the rate hike regime. EUR/USD could explode higher soon if 1.1900 resistance is taken out.

FOMC minutes were a bomb as the process toward a stopping of the hiking regime is under way - the Dec. 13 meeting will almost certainly include a monetary policy statement change.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Richmond Fed Index for November out at 9 vs. 11 expected and 12 in October
• US FOMC minutes showed some members increasingly uncomfortable with the prospects of continuing to raise rates and the minutes suggested that the Fed may look to change their outlook "before long".
• US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence out at -17 as expected and vs. -18 last week.
• Australia Leading Index for September up 0.3% vs. a 0.1% rise in August.

Market Moves
USD was pummeled for heavy losses after the FOMC minutes were released.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
From yesterday's analysis: "Also - the risk is that the market over-reacted to the Trichet comments and today will offer the highest risk of yet another reversal - so today is a bit of a "limbo"." Ahh - if only we had stressed this point a bit more - as the FOMC minutes proved why we should have been extremely careful, even if we tilted the odds to more upside in the USD. One reason was the technical setup: the market performed a pinpoint technical reversal from resistance on Monday and looked as if it wanted to test the base again. Like a fish presented with bait - we bit. Then along comes the Fed and drops a bomb that makes us again realize that technicals are about probabilities and not absolutes.... so.... we now have to tilt the odds to a weaker USD again.

And that's because the tectonic shift in the rumblings within the Fed here is absolutely key - and we said a long time ago that once the Fed starting reaching for the brake lever, this would be the kiss of death for the USD. Now - we haven't see all that much - but the fact that some Fed members are getting uncomfortable in their seats suggests that a slow, inexorable process is now underway that will bring a stop of the hiking. The market now needs to price in the fact that the next monetary policy statement will necessarily be changed, even if a hike takes place. We join Bill Gross in expecting that the next hike from the Fed could be the last (and will at least be followed by a pause at the January 31 meeting (Ironically, the meeting where the chairmanship will be transferred to the first new Fed chairman in 18 years - Ben Bernanke.

We will look for a rapid acceleration to the downside in the USD some time soon. Stay on your toes, here folks. Of course, the first technical proof is a move back through the 1.1870/1.1900 zone - but we'll be looking for that development very soon. Thereafter, we may see a rapid explosion to 1.2500 if rates continue to come off and the market is forced to unwind another couple of rate hikes in the forward STIR market expectations. (The interest rate expectations are key - if core inflation picks up and the economic numbers show sustained strength - then we'd have to delay this view). USD/JPY is probably history as well - a move through 118.50/30 could see us rapidly accelerating to 116.20 again. In any case, the interest rate market is absolutely screaming that we must buy EUR/USD. How much longer will the market respond so sluggishly to these signals?

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

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www.saxobank.com

 

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