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Friday July 28, 2017 - 16:41:11 GMT
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U.S. Monetary Policy Walking A Tightrope

John M. Bland, MBA


Fed Signals QE Taper and No Rate Hike What was expected to be an uneventful Fed meeting Wednesday had a serious impact on forex markets. Curiously, the policy announcement was about as expected with no changes in interest rates Fed Funds (1.00% to 1.25% range). As signaled at the prior Fed meeting in July, the central bank indicated that it would start to wind down its QE portfolio very soon. This wind-down could start as early as after the September 13 meeting. One mild surprise to the markets was another expression of concerns about the low levels of U.S. inflation. If this is borne out by future price data, this could kill any chance for another rate hike this year. Already Fed Funds futures have effectively priced out any risk of a September hike, plus odds for December boost are also negligible. This shift in sentiment hit the USD. The general USD market bias remains negative. It is likely to continue follow the lead of bonds and equities.


Yield Curve To Steepen? On reflection, traders appeared to be torn between concern about the possible impact of rising bond yields on the economy (a policy” tightening”) when put alongside a Fed signal that official rates might not be increased if inflationary pressures do not emerge. In my opinion, the Fed envisions a fairly fast wind-down of its government-backed bond portfolio. Of course, if markets start to show signs of “indigestion”, they could slow down their sales at any time. No action at the short end of the curve taken with additional supply at the longer end would likely result in a steepening of the yield curve. Higher bond yields generally presumably would be USD constructive with U.S. rates already generally higher across the board than their overseas alternatives. Key also would be how equity markets digest such a development. 


Yellen Back In Play For Next Fed Chief As for the likely successor to Fed Chair Yellen in January 2018, it appears that she remains in the running. Her policies over the past several years have been as supportive of the Trump economic agenda as his administration might have hoped. From a policy standpoint, Trump has nothing to complain about, but it is possible he might want a businessman in the job, as a matter of principle. Markets might prefer continuity in the post rather than having someone new have to learn the ropes on the job. I give Yellen 50-50 odds on being reappointed at this juncture.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 31 Jul
09:00 EZ- Flash HICP
Tue 1 Aug
All Day global Mfg PMIs
12:00 US- PCE Deflator
Wed 2 Aug
12:15 US- ADP Payrolls
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 3 Aug
All Day global Service PMIs
11:00 GB- Bank of England
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 4 Aug
12:30 US/CA- Employment

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

 

John M.Bland

Co-founding Partner

www.global-view.com

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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