Friday November 25, 2005 - 01:42:11 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 25th November 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.7240 ... 1.7260 ... 1.7285 ... 1.7317
Support....: 1.7200 ... 1.7174 ... 1.7138 ... 1.7109
Breach of 1.7295 or 1.7138 should generate the next 80-100 point move
The 1.7261-95 area did cap as expected and places us in a mixed position. To generate any further upside we need to see gains above 1.7240-60 and if seen this would provoke a second test at 1.7285-95 and probable breach to extend gains to 1.7342-65 at least and possibly as high as the 1.7428 area which should cap.
With a peak seen at 1.7285 we do still need to consider a more bearish stance but prefer to wait for confirmation of losses first. We need 1.7240-60 to cap and do feel that losses should be seen to 1.7134-44 at least. However, if there are to be any further losses then we shall need breach of this support area which would imply follow-through to the 1.7063 low. Next support is at 1.7020-26.
Elliott Wave Comments:
23rd November 2005
The recovery from 1.7064 means one of two things... Either we saw an expanded flat correction from 1.7243 which would imply a peak between 1.7243-61 with subsequent loss of 1.7140 and follow-through below 1.7100 and 1.7064 to 1.6985; or we saw an earlier completion of Wave -iii- lower and thus we can expect a 38.2%-41.4% retracement to 1.7342-61 in Wave -iv-. (maximum pullback should be at 50% implying 1.7428). Thus we need observe the reaction at 1.7243-61.
25th November 2005
The picture is mixed. We do need to allow for the possibility that Wave iv developed as an expanded flat which then moved to just 10 pips from the 50% retracement at 1.7295. If this is correct then look for losses from here that move below 1.7130-40 and then the 1.7063 low and to the Wave v target at 1.6985-1.7020.
However, should the 1.7130-40 area support any pullback then we can then expect a retest at 1.7285 with breach implying an extension to the 41.4% Wave -iv- retracement target at 1.7365 and possibly to the full 50% retracement at 1.7428.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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