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Tuesday August 15, 2017 - 20:17:55 GMT
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How Will the Rouble Perform in the Coming Months?

The world is facing a tough time both politically and economically, with divisions between people and countries seemingly growing wider. Most recently, the tensions between North Korea and the US have been stirring up political tensions, with fears that it could turn into a war.

Those involved in trading forex will be watching closely for the effects this will have on currencies like the rouble, with Russia being a major political and economic force. Here are some of the factors affecting the Russian currency.

Crude Oil

The Russian currency tends to be most influenced by the price of Brent crude oil, which is one of Russia’s main exports. Despite OPEC’s best efforts, crude oil has been suffering from a significant oversupply problem, meaning the price per barrel has been constantly pushed down for a number of years now.

This has had an impact on the value of the rouble, and unless the problem is addressed, it could continue to do so for the foreseeable future. That being said, oil is not Russia’s sole export, and it has a strong manufacturing industry which may help even out the economic impact of falling oil prices.

Consumer Confidence

Given the state of the global economy, with market volatility and international tensions dominating the global stage, most would assume consumer confidence would have taken a hit on an international scale. Whilst this is certainly the case for many countries, Russia’s consumer confidence reached its highest level in five years back in June.

This means that the Russian population is actually fairly enthusiastic about the economy and their personal finances, and could end up spending more towards the end of 2017, boosting the economy overall. Much of this confidence, however, depends on the future price of oil and the extent of the sanctions placed on Russia.

US-Russia Tensions

With this in mind, it seems as though the future for the rouble could be promising. One of the main impactors on the value of the currency, however, is the ongoing tension with the US, which has caused deep concerns internationally and within the country.

When Russia condemned a US air strike on Syria, for example, the dollar gained against the rouble, showing just how sensitive the currency can be to US events. If the relationship between the US and Russia does not improve soon, then it could have a serious bearing on the rouble’s trajectory.

Sanctions

Since the controversial conflict with Crimea, Russia has been subject to international scrutiny and a host of UN sanctions. Whilst increasing tension, this has also affected Russia’s trading capabilities, making it harder for it to exchange goods.

Most recently the US imposed more sanctions on the country, further decimating the chances of reconciliation and potentially harming Russia’s future economic prospects.

It looks as though the rouble will face a tough year with many obstacles to overcome, although consumer and business confidence is at a relatively healthy level. Should Russia find a way to reconcile with other nations and boost its trade, however, it could well make large economic gains and strengthen its national currency. 

 

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