Monday November 28, 2005 - 00:45:35 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 28th November 2005 Price:
Resistance: 119.70 ... 120.13 ... 120.44 ... 120.62
Support....: 119.24 ... 119.10 ... 118.95 ... 118.53
We should see a pullback to the 119.10-30 area followed by a rally to 120.44-62
We have seen the rally extend to the 119.50-70 area suggested on Friday and we feel this should cause a brief pullback. However, we see this moving only as low as 119.10-30 (stops to be placed below the 118.95 pivot area) and from here gains should extend towards 120.44 at least and possibly 120.62. This should cap for the day. Next resistance is at 120.90.
With the recovery developing much as expected we see little room for the downside today. While 119.70 caps we should see a dip to 119.30 at least and possibly 119.10. However, any more sustainable decline will require a break below the 118.95 pivotal area and only if seen would extend losses to 118.19 once again.
Elliott Wave Comments:
25th November 2005
The low at 118.19, while not too much below the 118.27 pivot support, was interesting since it represented a perfect 50% retracement of the 116.84-119.55 rally. We therefore feel that 119.55 could well be labeled as Wave i of Wave [c] with Wave ii at 118.19 and thus we should see a rally in Wave iii to 120.62 at least (where Wave [c] is equal to Wave [a]) and more probably to the 138.2% projection at 121.93.
28th November 2005
We are becoming more attracted to the alternative scenario in which 119.55 formed only Wave i of Wave [c] with Wave ii at 118.19 being a perfect 50.0% pullback. Within the rally from there we appear to be seeing a five-wave move develop which has potential to 120.44 (allow for the Wave [c] equality target at 120.62) to complete Wave a of Wave iii. After a pullback look for a rally to the 138.2% projection for wave iii at 121.93.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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