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Friday August 18, 2017 - 15:22:32 GMT
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More Fed Twist And Turns. USD Helped By Risk-Off

John M. Bland, MBA


Following Fed Policy Is Like Trying To Nail Jell-O To A Wall Trying to pin down the current policy of this Fed is muck like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall. First of all, their message is convoluted as they speak with way too many conflicting voices. The leadership (Chair Yellen, Vice Chair Fischer and N.Y. Fed President Dudley), keep signaling that the preference of the board is to “normalize” (= tighten) monetary policy, but they never seem to follow through. Policy seemingly is based on internal economic growth models and inflation forecasts, but their models have consistently been misreading the economy for nearly a decade. Structurally the economy is undergoing major changes and economic orthodoxy has not kept up with these changes. The old policy levers and gears are not having the predicted impact on growth, inflation and employment.

 

The latest Fed Minutes released on Wednesday afternoon once again were more dovish than expected just three weeks following its latest meeting. Policy makers seem befuddled that low inflation just won’t improve. If you ask the average “man in the street”, you will be told by most that his/her cost of living has been rising significantly. Are the Fed inflation metrics realistic? The analogy of the weatherman who does his forecasts based on models while never looking out the window seems apt here. Maybe the Fed needs new models based on what is ACTUALLY happening in the real world rather than what they think SHOULD happen in their fantasy universe? Could it be that their models and economic data are just plain wrong and obsolete?


EUR Demand Waning? In forex trading the EURUSD pair has been losing some of recent luster as demand appears to be waning. Since the end of February, EURUSD has rallied roughly from 1.0500 to just shy of 1.2000. That is about 14%. There is no doubt that a rise of that magnitude in this key exchange rate will be closely watched by the central council of the European Central Bank (ECB). A rising value of a county’s forex rate has an impact similar to a monetary policy tightening and will impact. A rising EUR will likely slow the speed at which the ECB normalizes (tightens) monetary policy for the Euro-Area. Liquidity has been returning to the markets as the summer holiday period winds down. From a trading perspective, I am always keeping a close eye on the yield on the U.S. 10-yr Note (last 2.220%),. At the current time, the 2.30% yield level in the 10-yr represents the key psychological barrier for the financial markets. The current Risk-Off posture of the markets is constructive for the USD.

 

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 22 Aug

      09:00 DE-ZEW Survey

 

      12:30 CA- Retail Sales (prelim)


Wed 23 Aug

      All Day Global flash MFG PMIs

 

      14:30 US- EIA Crude


Thu 24 Aug

      Jackson Hole, Wyo Symposium

 

      08:30 GB- GDP

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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