Saturday August 19, 2017 - 11:47:35 GMT
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Commitment Of Traders Report for 15 August 2017 Data Register To Test Your Amazing Trader
Forex trading is all about stops. The Commitment of Traders Report (COT) is an imperfect, but useful, "sampling" of market positioning. I would prefer more frequent and precise readings, but we have to live with what we get. The data work for the purpose of getting an idea if traders are positioned long or short and if they in big or small.
EURUSD net long positions have been trimmed modestly in futures trading. The heavy blue line (once a week spots) provides a useful perspective. It shows that EURUSD pair has been topped out at about the 1.1800 level. As a developing reserve currency, keep in mind EUR positions are not just against the USD. EUR crosses vs. the JPY and GBP are critical. The European economy is improving and that should remain a EUR positive.
Net GBPUSD positions remain modestly short and have been roughly steady for the past three months or so. The GBP has been unable to firmly formed a floor around the GBPUSD 1.3000 line. BOE Governor Carney recently has taken a more hawkish monetary policy posture. This unit is more sensitive than most currencies to its economic data. This makes it more attractive to those of us who rely on active markets. The EURGBP has been rising steadily and presumably giving the U.K. economy a lift. Keep an eye on the EURGBP cross as a barometer of flows in and out of the EUR. These flows often directly impact both units against the USD.
USDJPY and the EURUSD once traded in tandem with one another against the USD. Recently, they have been trading in opposite directions due to Japan's perpetual recession. USDJPY has been in a wide range since April, but EURJPY has risen fairly sharply. The rise in the EUR vs. the JPY may have been a bigger story than the EURUSD gain. The USDJPY pair has always been heavily manipulated by the Bank of Japan. The BOJ usually tries to keep its currency depressed to promote exports. Whenever the USDJPY starts to slide, expect to to see BOJ USDJPY support. This support typically is covert. The USDJPY correlates positively with the yield on the U.S. 10-yr note. USDJPY longs (JPY futures shorts) have been INCREASING. The Bak of Japan is nowhere near tightening its monetary policy as inflation remains depressed.
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