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Monday November 28, 2005 - 10:14:04 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• USD showing strong again, especially against the JPY.
• EUR-USD remains above key supports and these may hold ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting and
Friday’s US payrolls.
• US existing home sales, Canadian parliamentary vote feature today.

Market Outlook

D The USD continues to flex its muscles despite the uncertainty about policy that has been raised by last week’s FOMC minutes. USD-JPY in particular is shaping up positively and the move above the previous high at 119.56 bodes well for a possible break of 120.00 today – below 119.50 is required to alleviate the immediate pressure for such a development. A break above 120.00 would leave scope up towards 120.70 initially ahead of 121.80.

EUR-USD is also soft, but remains clear of the recent lows around 1.1640. A break of that level would clearly expose supports at 1.1500 and 1.1590, but it may be difficult to move below any of these key levels ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting and Friday’s US employment report. If the USD was able to advance in this manner it would represent a strong statement about underlying USD sentiment and the likelihood of a significant break lower in EUR-USD in December. IMM data showed net shorts on EUR-USD advancing to 13k, which is still not that excessive. However, the nature of the US data will remain critical to USD developments.

Also keep an eye on the USD index, which is not far off its recent high at 92.63. A break above there would open the way to the next level at 94.13 (November 2003 high).

There is a parliamentary vote today in Canada, which is likely to signal the end of the road for the current government after having limped along for much of this year following the financial scandal revelations in the Liberal party. The prospect of an election (most probably Jan 16 or 23) may be slightly unsettling for the CAD, although it is highly unlikely to change underlying CAD fundamentals. The development may be enough to bolster current key supports on USD-CAD at 1.1640 and 1.1588 in the short-term, although medium-term risk remains to the downside for USD-CAD.

Day Ahead
US – existing home sales data is due in the US and while this and new home sales will come under increased scrutiny in the months ahead, as yet there are few genuine signs of a significant weakening in housing market activity.

Japan – labour market data is out tonight and in recent months this has been showing good signs of genuine job creation. More of the same is likely tonight, although as usual there is room for much volatility in the employment number. JPY impact is unlikely, with the market primarily focused on CPI, which last week was disappointing.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

EU ECB’s Trichet speaks 10.00
CA BoC’s Dodge speaks
US Existing home sales (Oct) 15.00 7.20m
JP Unemployment rate (Oct) 23.30 4.2%
JP Job-to-applicants ratio (Oct) 23.30 0.98
JP Employment (Oct) 23.30 +530k last
JP PCE workers (Oct) y/y 23.30 +0.2%
CA Parliamentary confidence vote 23.45
JP Ind prod (Oct, prel) m/m 23.50 +1.4%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Retail sales (Oct) m/m -0.3% +1.0%
DE Consumer confidence (Dec) 3.1 3.4 last
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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