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Monday November 28, 2005 - 10:40:58 GMT
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets - www.lloydstsb.com/corporatemarkets

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Forex: Daily Outlook

Summary
Central bank events in the euro zone and the US spearhead a busy economic agenda this week. Investors are likely to concentrate on what will be one of the last keynote speeches by Fed Chairman Greenspan as a potential catalyst for volatility in the currency and bond markets, looking for confirmation that their dovish interpretation of last week’s Fed minutes was right. The simultaneous release of the latest US employment report could mean a choppy end to the week. Updates on consumer credit, consumer confidence and business conditions in manufacturing and retail industries will all be monitored carefully in the UK. The BoE two weeks ago stated that there are short-term downside risks to economic growth. Any signs of economic weakness could help fixed income markets to extend last week’s gains and could hurt sterling. With a 25bp rate increase by the ECB fully discounted, it is the ECB press conference and a plethora of economic sentiment surveys from the large member states that will attract most interest in the euro zone.

Markets (London close)
Currencies % change (on day)
€/$ 1.1733 -0.47
£/$ 1.7159 -0.46
€/£ 0.6838 -0.01
£/€ 1.4625 +0.01
£/Y 205.34 +0.25
£/CHF 2.2629 -0.18
$/Y 119.67 +0.72

Equities % change (on day)
Dow Jones 30 10931.6 +0.14
S&P 500 1268.3 +0.21
FTSE 100 5523.8 +0.23
Nikkei 225 14742.6 +0.23
DJ Eurostoxx 50 3466.1 +0.20

Interest rates (%) bp change (on day)
UK 3-mth interbank 4.58 zero
US 3-mthT-bill 3.86 +1.0
Euro 3-mth Euribor 2.45 zero
Japan 3-mth interbank 0.09 zero
UK 10-yr benchmark 4.18 zero
US 10-yr benchmark 4.43 -5.0
Euro 10-yr benchmark 3.41 +1.0
Japan 10-yr benchmark 1.45 -2.0

Swaps 5-yr (%) bp change (on day)
UK 4.61 -2.0
US 4.83 -3.0
Euro 3.16 zero
Japan 0.87 +1.0

Commodities (US$) $ change (on day)
Oil - Brent, Dec future 55.01 -0.29
Gold spot 493.37 zero

Technical levels
€/$ 1.1640-1.1733 - trading high end of range
£/$ 1.7089-1.7187 - trading low end of range
€/£ 0.6800-0.6850 - trading high end of range
$/Y 119.18-119.88 - trading high end of range
$/CHF 1.3156-1.3230 - trading high end of range

Currency commentary
US-centric events are likely to steer currency markets this week. A speech by Fed Chairman Greenspan and the US employment report on Friday loom large over financial markets at the end of the week and mean that foreign exchange investors may decide not to take on new positions until then. Trading ranges for the major currency pairs are thus likely to remain quite tight until we move into the latter part of the week. The question is can the dollar finish the year on a high, or will investors choose to take profits on their long dollar positions? This will be answered by how the Fed this and next week describes how it sees the outlook evolve for monetary policy. Homeland investment flows may support the dollar until the end of December. Investors in sterling will concentrate their attention on house prices, consumer credit, consumer confidence and manufacturing sentiment. In the euro zone, a 25bp rate hike by the ECB is priced in on Thursday. This should limit the fillip of higher interest rates for the euro.

Major data and events this week
Today
• BoE governor King speaks at Dutch Central Bank conference
(09:30)
• Chancellor Brown speaks at CBI conference (11:45)
• ECB president Trichet speaks at Fixed Income Forum (10:00)
• German consumer confidence
• US existing home sales
• Japan unemployment, industrial output

Tuesday
• UK Nationwide house prices, M4 money supply, mortgage
lending, consumer credit
• EU-12 M3 money supply
• French producer prices
• US durable goods orders, new home sales, consumer confi
dence
• ECB president Trichet speaks at Fixed Income Forum (10:00)
• German consumer confidence
• US existing home sales

Wednesday
• UK consumer confidence
• EU-12 consumer and industry confidence, flash CPI, Q3 GDP
(2nd est)
• German unemployment
• French unemployment
• US Q3 GDP (2nd est), Chicago PMI
• Federal Reserve Beige Book is published
• Fed speakers: Poole, Bies
• Canada Q3 GDP

Thursday
• UK manufacturing PMI, CBI distributive trades survey
• ECB interest rate decision (25bp hike to 2.25% expected)
• EU-12 manufacturing PMI, unemployment
• German retail sales
• US personal income and spending, initial claims, ISM manufac
turing index, construction spending

Friday
• US non-farm payrolls
• EU-12 producer prices
• Fed speakers: Chairman Greenspan, Yellen, Santomero
• G7 meeting in London (to Saturday)
%

You can contact us on FMDEconomicResearch@lloydstsb.co.uk See our website, address at the top, for more research.
www.lloydstsbfinancialmarkets.com

DISCLAIMER
Any documentation, reports, correspondence or other material or information in whatever form be it electronic, textual or otherwise is based on sources believed to be reliable, however neither the Bank nor its directors, officers or employees warrant accuracy, completeness or otherwise, or accept responsibility for any error, omission or other inaccuracy, or for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. The facts and data contained are not, and should under no circumstances be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product, nor are they intended to be a substitute for commercial judgement or professional or legal advice, and you should not act in reliance upon any of the facts and data contained, without first obtaining professional advice relevant to your circumstances. Expressions of opinion may be subject to change without notice. Although warrants and/or derivative instruments can be utilised for the management of investment risk, some of these products are unsuitable for many investors. The facts and data contained are therefore not intended for the use of private customers (as defined by the FSA Handbook) of Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authorities and a signatory to the Banking Codes, and represents only the Scottish Widows and Lloyds TSB Marketing Group for life assurance, pension and investment business.

 

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Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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