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Tuesday June 29, 2004 - 15:34:26 GMT
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Daily Forex Commentary by Global Forex Trading

Daily Commentary By Cornelius Luca, GFT forex analyst
(source: http://www.gftforex.com/resources/daily.asp?date=6292004)

The dollar bottomed on Monday and it subsequently recovered. It should retain at least some degree of strength ahead of late Wednesday’s main event, when the Fed will likely hike rates by 25 basis points. Expect choppy trading to persist. Keep an eye on the consumer confidence report.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar fell from a 19-day high of 1.2229 on Friday, as it broke out from a trading range. However, only a close above the 100-day moving average, now at around 1.2178, would confirm further strength.

If this pivotal resistance breaks, then the euro/dollar would then challenge the 1.2229 and 1.2250 levels. A rally to 1.2300 is less likely on the day.

If 1.2192 holds, then look for a pullback. Immediate support remains at 1.3130 and then 1.2100. A break lower would target 1.2060 and then 1.2000. Distant support remains at 1.1965.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen continues to recover from last week’s 2 ½-month. The pair remains below the neckline of a head-and-shoulders formation and below the 200-day moving average at around 108.60.

The key resistance remains 109.15, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.

Strong support now comes at 107.95 from a Gann 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. Below 107.24, dollar/yen has support at 107.00. Key support remains at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar broke above the 20-day moving average at around 1.8290 on Monday, but its inability to hold higher translated into a sharp slide today.

The pair has initial support at 1.8100 and a break lower would signal a decline to the pivotal low at 1.8043. Distant support looms at 1.7982.

Above 1.8214, the sterling/dollar has strong resistance at 1.8290 and then at 1.8407 is unlikely.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly higher

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc finally made a more significant recovery after treading water in an inside range for two days. It broke the resistance of a trendline at 1.2559 on its way to an 11-day high of 1.2597.

The pair has initial resistance at 1.2617 from a Fibonacci retracement level and a break higher signals a move to the pivotal high at 1.2700.

Dollar/Swiss franc has immediate support at 1.2533 and a break lower would likely trigger a slide to 1.2480. If this level gives way as well, then look for a test the support at 1.2423. The pivotal low at 1.2320 should be off the radar screen for today.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

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