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Friday September 22, 2017 - 15:21:02 GMT
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Janet Yellen “the Hawk” And The Fed Deliver

John M. Bland, MBA


Janet Yellen, the unlikely hawk On Wednesday the Fed took a more hawkish policy stance than the markets were expecting. As expected, the Fed Funds target range was held steady at 1.00-1.25%. However, the central bank hinted at a tightening bias for the December 13 meeting. Also, as expected, the Fed announced that it would start to unwind its massive investment portfolio in October.

The vote was a unanimous 9-0 and the policy statement indicated that risks to the economy remain toughly balanced . The surprise was that a December interest rate hike remains in play. This decision remains data dependent. Weaker than expected growth or soft inflation data could derail a future rate hike . Fed Fund futures see an end of year rate hike as about a coin toss. In recent years, the markets have been better forecasters of Fed policy than the Fed itself! The Fed also forecasted three further interest rate rises in 2018.

The major item was the balance sheet reduction timing. The reduction will be modest at the start and then grow. The plan is to reduce gradually the reinvestment of maturing holdings rather than making outright sales of securities. The initial decline of securities holding will be up to USD 6bn per month in U.S. Treasury bonds and USD4bn in mortgage backed securities. Levels will be raised at three-monthly intervals to eventually reach a cap of USD 30bn and USD20bn per month, respectively. It is felt that the ultimate goal is to reduce their USD 4.5tn portfolio to a new equilibrium level of roughly USD 2.5tn over a period of two to three years.

Markets had been set up for a Fed tapering before the Fed announcement on Wednesday, but were surprised by the aggressive posture on interest rates going into the end of the year. As a consequence, markets pushed the USD higher into the close. By the time Thursday rolled around, traders were marking the USD back lower again once the yield on the 10-yr note adjusted back lower slightly. It will take an ongoing flow of positive U.S. economic data to sustain the USD gains and higher interest rates. One thing to consider is that Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will tend to cloud economic data over the next several weeks, making economic data difficult to read. Worth noting, several top Fed officials say they feel the impact from the storms will only be transitory. In my opinion, improving data from Europe will continue to support the EURUSD exchange rate. There is little doubt that German Chancellor Merkel will prevail in elections over the weekend.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Sun 24 Sep
All Day German Elections
Mon 25 Sep
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
Tue 26 Sep
14:00 US- New Homes Sales
14:00 US- CB Confidence
Wed 27 Sep
12:30 US- Durable Goods
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 28 Sep
12:30 US- GDP
12:30 US- Jobless Claims
Fri 29 Sep
09:00 EZ- flash HICP
12:30 US- Core PCE deflator
14:00 US- University of Michigan final

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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