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Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 11:42:48 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• General air of uncertainty suggests range trading for USD today.
• NZD pulls back from new highs against AUD.
• US GDP, Chicago PMI, Beige Book and Canadian GDP feature today.

Market Outlook

Yesterday’s stronger than expected US economic releases helped to ease some of the pressure on the USD that emerged after Monday’s weak data. However, the general air of uncertainty will remain in place at least until Thursday’s ECB meeting/US ISM data and Friday’s US employment report.
Narrow range trading on EUR-USD looks like being the most likely outcome until then. The immediate levels to look at on EUR-USD today are at 1.1760 and 1.1800, with broader parameters of interest at 1.1640, 1.1735, 1.1840 and 1.1900.

The stability of the USD against the majors is allowing other stories to develop, most notably for the NZD. This has yet tobreak through short-term resistance at 0.7070 (descending line from September 5 peak at 0.7125) or 0.7125 itself, although it isflirting with fresh highs against the AUD. This reflects the contrasting fortunes on interest rates. Slightly stronger than expected retail sales data in Australia last night failed to disturb the generally flat expectations about RBA policy, while the RBNZ is expected to raise rates further next week. There are obvious question marks about NZD fundamentals e.g. widening external deficit and financial health of the consumer sector, but rate arguments are likely to remain powerful in the short-term.

Day Ahead
US – the 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP is generally expected to see an upward revision compared to the 1st estimate, despite a bigger drag from net exports. Consumption and investment spending categories are likely to be revised up and healthy 4% annualised growth will be in spite of the hurricanes and Boeing strike, which many see as having taken 1% off the headline growth rate. Being for Q3 the market may already view this data as being slightly historical, although it seems clear that going into what is a crucial period for Fed policy, the economy was in good shape. Volatile Chicago PMI is also out, while the Beige Book, which will provide the economic input for the Dec 13 FOMC meeting, will be watched closely for observations about housing, labour demand and pricing power.

Canada – a strong set of Q3 GDP data is also likely to be forthcoming in Canada, which should support expectations of further BoC tightening in the months ahead, starting next week on Dec 6. The outlook for the CAD looks reasonably good, especially if the USD can show some stability against other currencies (the threat of sharp USD strength against the majors tends to discourage position taking against the USD on other crosses). The election called for January 23 is a minor distraction, especially as the opinion polls suggest that a similar style government will emerge. 1.1640 is the main level to look at on USD-CAD, being the intermediate barrier ahead of major support at the 2005 low of 1.1588.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US GDP (Q3, 2nd est) saar 08.30 +4.1%
US Core PCE prices (Q3) saar 08.30 +1.3%
CA GDP (Q3) saar 08.30 +3.8%
CA GDP (Sep) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Chicago PMI (Nov) 10.00 60.0
US Beige Book for Dec 13 FOMC 14.00
AU Current account (Q3) 19.30 -A$12.7bn
AU Private new capex (Q3) q/q 19.30 +1.0%
CN PMI manu (Nov) 20.00 54.1 last

Latest data Actual Consensus*
US ABC consumer conf (w/e Nov 27) -15 -17 last
JP PMI manu (Nov) 55.3 54.7 last
AU Retail trade (Oct) m/m +0.5% +0.4%
AU Private sector credit (Oct) m/m +0.9% +0.9%
CH CPI (Nov) y/y +1.0% +1.2%
DE Retail sales (Oct) m/m +1.9% +0.8%
FR Household survey (Nov) -33 -30
FR Unemployment rate (Oct) 9.7% 9.8%
FR ILO job seekers (Oct) m/m -13k -11k
EU CPI (Nov, flash est) y/y +2.4% +2.4%
EU Econ sentiment (Nov) 99.9 100.5
EU Business climate index (Nov) +0.13 +0.20
EU GDP (Q3, prel) q/q +0.6% +0.6%
IT CPI (Nov, prel) y/y +2.2% +2.3%
GB Consumer confidence (Nov) -8 -6
* Consensus unless stated

Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996
2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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