Wednesday November 30, 2005 - 19:53:45 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning ReportNew Zealand Dollar NZD range trades above 0.7000
The NZD consolidated above 0.7000 but ran into stiff resistance around 0.7050 to range trade for much of Wednesday. Oct dwelling consents were worse than expected, coming out at –6.7% against expectations of +5.0%. The currency failed to take heed and instead grinded higher from 0.6994 to 0.7055 during local trading. More good data from the US economy limited the upside move in the NZD and eventually lead to a retreat back to 0.7020. We open today at 0.7030.
Australian Dollar: AUD pushes towards 0.7400
The AUD traded quietly yesterday but made another move toward 0.7400 after a positive retail sales number and other steady economic data. Retail sales for Oct rose 0.5%, rebounding from –0.4% the previous month. The consumer remains conservative but the outlook is more encouraging after Westpac-MI consumer sentiment recovered in Nov. Oct credit grew 0.9%, right on expectations and Q3 Construction Work Done was up 0.9%, between Westpac’s 0.5% forecast and the markets 1.5% expectation. The AUD quietly crept higher from 0.7372 to 0.7406 and closed around 0.7395.
Major Currencies: USD consolidates despite stronger than expected data
Despite the release of stronger than expected US data yesterday, the USD continues to consolidate within familiar ranges. The currency remains unable to break higher through 120 yen rejecting from an overnight high of 119.80. The greenback initially firmed following the release of preliminary Q3 GDP data, however the USD’s gains were eroded following the release of Nov’s Chicago PMI data. The euro maintained a 1.1754 – 1.1804 range, while the yen traded lower from 119.80 to a 119.23 low. The euro and yen open this morning at 1.1790 and 119.65, respectively.
Japanese PMI strong on the headline and the detail.
The Nomura-JMMA PMI rose to 55.3 in Nov from 54.7 in Oct. Output rose at the fastest rate since April 2004 – the tech expansion’s peak.
US Beige Book: some household moderation.
The household side of the coin showed some chinks, with retail sales growth moderate (much of the weakness in autos) and some softening of housing in many districts. However, manufacturing was doing well and the labour market strengthening outside the auto sector. Consumer inflation remained modest, but higher input prices were starting to get passed through in some regions and wages are under some pressure. Enough to keep the Fed hiking at the next 2 meetings.
US Q3 GDP revision better than expected.
The headline number was revised from 4.0% annualised to 4.3%, with higher estimates of personal consumption, business investment, inventories, and residential investment more than offset a downward revision to the net export sector.
US Chicago PMI better than expected.
The headline number slipped to just 61.7 from 62.9. The real surprise in the detail was a sharp jump in prices paid from 79.6 to 94.1.
Eurozone Q3 GDP detail as expected.
The final came in at 0.6%, in line with the flash estimate. The components were also roughly as expected, with the all important household consumption number up 0.3% after an upwardly revised 0.2% (market had forecast 0.4% and the last was previously 0.1%).
Canadian GDP weaker month, as expected quarter.
The September monthly number was flat but the quarter came in at an as expected 3.6% annualised, up from an upwardly revised 3.4% in Q2.
Date Country Release Last Forecast
Aust Nov AIG PMI 47.8 n/f
Q3 Current Account Deficit AUDbn 12.6 12.6
Q3 Net Exports Contribution ppts –0.2 –0.4
Q3 Private Capital Expenditure 7.3% flat
2005/06 CAPEX Intentions AUDbn 56.6 n/f
US Oct Personal Income/Spending 1.7%/0.5% 0.5%/flat
Oct Core PCE Deflator 0.2% 0.2%
Initial Jobless Claims w/e 26/11 335k 323k
Nov ISM Manufacturing 59.1 57.5
Oct Construction Spending 0.5% 0.5%
Eur ECB Repo Rate Decision 2.0% 2.25%
Nov PMI Manufacturing 52.7 n/f
UK Nov PMI Manufacturing 51.7 n/f
Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (28 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (21 November)
• NZ Q3 Retail Sales Review (15 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (14 November)
• NZ Housing Equity Withdrawal (10 November)
• NZ Q3 HLFS Review (10 November)
• NZ Q3 QES and LCI Review (8 November)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (7 November)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (7 November)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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