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Friday October 6, 2017 - 15:06:01 GMT
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Catalonia Simmers While U.S. Economic Picture Improves

John M. Bland, MBA


”Unlawful “ Catalonia Independence Wins Big Last Sunday voters in the Catalonia region of Spain apparently overwhelmingly vote in favor of independence from Madrid. On Thursday, Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos ruled out mediated talks with separatist leaders . He said independence is out of the question and that Spain has nothing to discuss with the secessionists until the rule of law is restored. Clearly, Madrid is taking a hard line on the vote by questioning its very legitimacy. There are press reports that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and his minority government have been seeking cross-party political support for his hard-line approach to the secessionists. They say his next move could involve suspending the regional government and implementing direct rule from Madrid.

The regional government in Barcelona must soon announce the results of its succession vote. When it does a 48-hour clock will start ticking on when the regional Parliament must trigger the process for leaving Spain. Its easy to vote for independence from a central government. Its another thing to make a new nation a reality.

This event could have implications beyond the Spanish borders as it follows on the heels of the U.K. exit from the EU. Many EU member states have regions seeking autonomy from their central governments. Waiting in the wings is the Five Star movement in Italy. How Madrid handles this challenge to its authority has implications for the future of the EU experiment as a whole and the EUR. It is hard to see how this can end well. Keep an eye on Spanish bond yields and stock prices as leading indicators of investor confidence. They might also be your best barometer of it whether it is likely to spill over into the Euro.


Poor Headline U.S. Payroll Data Dismissed As expected, the September U.S. Non Farm Payroll data were weak in the wake of Hurricanes Harvey (Texas) and Irma (Florida). Payrolls fell by -33k in the month. Street estimates had been for a rise of only 90K or so and the data were much weaker than that. Nevertheless, a weak payroll figure was expected and the markets knew that street estimates would be hard to make, so the decline was viewed as one-off. A significant rebound is expected is as early as in October or November. Instead, markets took note of two other strong indicators. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.4% in August. This was a sixteen year low. More importantly monthly Average Hourly Earnings gained 0.5%, much higher than expected. This resulted in a yr/yr increase of 2.9%. Some say that storm effects might have distorted the data to the upside while others said the data reflected and underlying improvement. Markets felt the Earnings data would lock in a +25bo Fed rate hike in December.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 9 Oct
JP, CA, U.S.- Holiday
Tue 10 Oct
08:30 GB- Output and Trade
Wed 11 Oct
12:30 US- PPI
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Fri 13 Oct
12:30 US- Retail Sales
12:30 US- CPI
14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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