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Friday December 2, 2005 - 11:02:53 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD soft after ECB meeting and US ISM.
• JPY remains weak across the board.
• G7 meeting, US/Canadian employment feature.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has remained soft overnight following an ECB meeting and press conference that failed to boost expectations about the extent of further rate hikes. Trichet’s revelations over some differences of opinion on the council (initially, some had inclinations towards keeping rates unchanged, while others were looking for 50bp before settling on the ‘unanimous’ decision) also highlight the diversity of views on the ECB council. The solid performance in the US ISM was also a contributory factor. The US employment report (see below for preview) will influence where EUR-USD ends today and a soft number may be required to prevent a test of key supports at 1.1680 and 1.1640.

The USD-JPY break above 120 caused an immediate move to the next resistance point at 120.70. This level needs to break to allow a move to 121.80 and there is a good chance of this happening today. The interest rate arguments against the JPY remain powerful, as witnessed by the fact that the main beneficiaries this week have been the NZD and AUD. Further outperformance for these currencies against the USD will require breaks of 0.7455 on the AUD and 0.7100-25 on NZD.

Day Ahead
G7 – the meeting will primarily be watched for further signalsm about China, although these are unlikely to be forthcoming. It is too high-profile for that. More likely is that China starts to up the pace of CNY appreciation in the New Year within the current daily adjustment framework. Little in the way of fresh light is likely to be cast on monetary policy prospects in G7.

Canada – labour market data is unlikely to seriously threaten the general scenario of more BoC rate hikes in the short-term. The employment data has been a little erratic over the past couple of months (-2.3k Sep, +68.7k Oct), although taken together the numbers confirm that underlying labour demand remains fairly strong. 1.1588 & 1.1640 are key on USD-CAD.

US – the November employment report is the main feature and an improvement is needed to offset the disappointments of recent months. The softer number seen in September was clearly hurricane and Boeing strike related, although in October the BLS suggested that the weakness was in non-hurricane areas. There are even fewer excuses therefore for November and anything less than a return to the prior trend around 175k- 200k could be greeted with some disappointment. However, it is clear from other data like ISM that economic activity growth in general remains fairly brisk and this will provide some support to overall sentiment about the US economy.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

G7 Finmin/CB governors meeting (2 days)
EU PPI (Oct) y/y 10.00 +3.9%
CA Employment (Nov) 12.00 +20k
CA Unemployment rate (Nov) 12.00 6.6%
US Non-farm payrolls (Nov) 13.30 +210k
US Unemployment rate (Nov) 13.30 5.0%
US Average workweek (Nov) 13.30 33.8
US Hourly earnings (Nov) m/m 13.30 +0.2%
US Greenspan on budget policy 14.00
US Greenspan on int’l imbalances 16.10
US Fed’s Yellen on US economy 19.00

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Monetary base (Nov) y/y +1.5% +2.9%
AU Building approvals (Oct) m/m 0.0% +2.5%
AU House prices (Q3) q/q -1.0% -0.5%
GB HBOS house prices (Nov) m/m +1.2% 0.0%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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