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Friday October 20, 2017 - 15:09:30 GMT
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Catalonia Independence Heating Up; Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise

John M. Bland, MBA


Catalonia Stands Up To Madrid On Thursday, the Catalan President, Carles Puigdemont, stood up to Madrid by refusing to drop its independence claim for the region. Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy said his government (Spain) said it would move ahead with its threat to suspend the powers of the regional administration. Madrid said it would hold an emergency Cabinet meeting on Saturday, October 21st to begin process of suspending Catalan autonomy under Article 155. Rajoy plans to go ahead with Article 155 procedures to restore rule of law in Catalonia. Following Cabinet meeting, this declaration would go to Senate for a vote after at least three days (this means Tuesday?). The Catalan President will be given time to “clarify” that he will not be declaring independence until the Senate meeting. At the meeting he will be given an opportunity to defend his position. This means that next Tuesday looms as the next major deadline for Catalonia.

Markets continue to take the Catalonian situation mostly in stride. We have seen short bouts of flight to safety demand in German bunds and U.S. Treasuries. Curiously. The DAX has been seeing lower interest rates as a positive. The EUR has been taking this potential political instability in Spain in its stride. This could become a forex factor should political tensions start to escalate to tensions in the streets.


Better Sentiment About The U.S. Economy Driving Rates Higher The general tenor of U.S. data has been on an improving path now that we are working through the distortions in economic statistics generated by the major hurricanes this year. As the economic statistics start to normalize it becomes evident that economic growth has continued to improve, which means that a Fed rate hike in Mid-December is becoming near certain. There is also a Fed meeting on November 1. Professional Fed watchers mostly see no rate change at that meeting, but there is some chatter by other observers about a rate hike at that meeting, but given the recent disappointing inflation performance (low inflation) an earlier rate hike has to be viewed as a long shot at best. The yield on the 2-yr note is a good measure of market sentiment about Fed policy. It stood at 1.26% on September 7and was last at 1.55%. That is an increase of 29bps in six weeks. By way of contrast, the 10-yr less 2-yr spread has declined to +77bps from +82bps , indicating that markets are anticipating a Fed policy move. Fed Funds Futures Odds For a December 13 25bp rate hike are now running at close to 80%. This market bias typically would be USD constuctive.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct

      All Day flash PMIs


Wed 25 Oct

      01:30 AU- CPI

 

      08:00 DE- IFO Survey

 

      08:30 GB- GDP

 

      14:00 CA- BOC Decision

 

      14:30 US- EIA Crude


Thu 26 Oct

      11:45 EZ- ECB Decision

 

      12:30 US- Weekly Jobless

 

      14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales


Fri 27 Oct

      12:30 US- GDP

 

      14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

 

Be sure to refer daily Global-View to see the continuously UPDATED Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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