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Friday December 2, 2005 - 14:57:26 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX-Thoughts for the day- Evening - 02-12-05 ... 1250 GMT


Euro @ 1.1702/05....Support 1.1676. Resistance 1.1750
-----------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1730 / 1.1752 / 1.1768-75
S: 1.1696 / 1.1676 / 1.1643-38-30
Starting to look distinctly bearish. Immediate Support at 1.1696. A Day Close below this today could well signal 1.16 and possibly 1.15 next week. 1.1630 is the statistically projected Max Low for today. 1.1750 is the Resistance to watch today. Just in case the Euro climbs after the NFP data tonight and breaches 1.1750, the downside will be delayed (at least) and confusion will reign again. A trade idea would be to sell at 1.1750 with a Stop at 1.1783 just after the data. But, its not something we will do because we would like to get confirmation of a directional move before getting into the market again. How about selling below 1.1690? Beware Support at 1.1676. Deciding to stay out.




$-Yen @ 120.78/82....Further upside? Beware Resistances
--------------------------------------------------------
R: 121.21 / 121.45
S: 120.75 / 120.49 / 120.35-20
The Aug-2003 High at 120.63 has been breached. Now the BIG Trendline Resistance at 121.45 is the next target to watch for. Why haven't we been taking Longs? We could have, but since the oxygen could be getting thin here and there were a number of Resistance available in the morning, we were wary of buying. That said, there can be chances of a rise past 121.45 to 122.23-33 next week, unless the market closes below 120.16 at least today.

We'll be more comfortable buying on a dip to 120.35-20 if one takes place.


Euro-Yen @ 141.35/40....Strong support at 140.85
-----------------------------------------------------------

R: 141.56 / 141.90-142.03
S: 141.24 / 141.09 / 140.87-71
There seems to be some profit taking pressures in the Euro-Yen cross as it has not risen above 141.65 so far the day. We expect to see strong buying interest after it dips to 140.85. Even if it attempts to rise above 141.65 it might find resistance at 141.75, which could be a difficult level to break today. A fall below 140.85 may cause further dip to 139.80 early next week.





Swiss @ 1.3190/95....Strong support at 1.3173 and 1.3146
-----------------------------------------------------------

R: 1.3225-39 / 1.3254
S: 1.3177-54 / 1.3141-29
Strong intraday support at 1.3173. While the current up rend remains intact, there could be resistances coming at 1.3225-39, if there is a rally today. In case of a break below 1.3173, the dollar may find support again at 1.3146. The down side being limited we expect a strong close for today in order to leave sufficient scope for sustained rally next week.

Order:
Buy $ 25K at 1.3085, SL 1.3025,TP 1.3169.



Cable @ 1.7264/69.....Tempted to sell into decline
-------------------------------------------------------
R: 1.7293 / 1.7312
S: 1.7250-35 / 1.7190
Trading below Trendline support (now Resistance) at 1.7290 on the 4-hour chart. A fall below 1.7250 may test 1.7235-20 today, maybe 1.7190. Further fall towards 1.7070 may or may not take place next week. Resistance to watch now is 1.7293-7312.

Tempted to sell into decline, but would like to see a Bearish confirmation before entering the market.




Aussie @ 0.7442/47.....Watching resistance at 0.7465
----------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7454 / 0.7465-74 / 0.7495
S: 0.7422-19 / 0.7409-0.7392 / 0.7382-74
The Aussie is expected to limit its upside, as it faces strong trend line resistance at 0.7465 coming from 12th-Sep highs. Even on an intraday basis, the pair is currently unable to rally above 0.7443 level. For today, betting on the upside requires a strong rally above 0.7465, above an upmove to 0.7550 and 0.7600 may take place next week. Failure to rally above 0.7465 may cause a fall, back to 0.7350 and 0.7320 in a couple of days from now.




Happy Trading!

 

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