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Monday December 5, 2005 - 11:34:35 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• USD looks well underpinned, although apprehension ahead of next week’s FOMC may constrain appetite this week.
• Weak JPY theme persists - NZD and AUD continue to benefit.
• US non-manufacturing ISM and UK pre-Budget Report feature today.

Market Outlook

D The USD remains firm, aided by the generally solid data seen last week, although it is not clear whether EUR-USD will be able to break key levels at 1.1640 and 1.1590 this week, given that the market may become increasingly apprehensive about the prospect of a language change at next week’s FOMC meeting. Such a downside development is the preferred scenario over the next few weeks, but the FOMC is a potential hurdle.

The ongoing move in USD-JPY through various technical levels (120.70 being the latest on Friday) is maintaining upside momentum (next stop 121.80), although the weak JPY as opposed to a strong USD is a theme in itself. The main beneficiaries of this have been the NZD and AUD, with NZDJPY and AUD-JPY continuing to advance strongly. At some point a pause for breath will be required, although with an RBNZ rate hike due this week there is perhaps room for more initially. NZD-USD broke above key short-term resistance at 0.7075-0.7125 on Friday, leaving room to 0.7200-15 ahead of this week’s RBNZ outcome. USD-CAD is also close to key support at 1.1588 (2005 low) and there is a reasonable chance of a break in the short-term. The BoC are also likely to hike rates this week and offer a message of further tightening ahead.

Day Ahead
UK – Brown’s pre-Budget Report is the main feature, although apart from the possibility of him unveiling a windfall tax on the oil companies, there are unlikely to be any dramatic developments on tax policy. He will be forced to significantly downgrade his 2005 GDP forecast to 2% (possibly lower) from the 3%-3.5% range initially seen. However, recent improvements in the monthly public finance data (due to spending weakness) may allow him to claim that the overall finances are not that far away from target for the current year, even though recent government spending weakness is likely to prove temporary. Furthermore, because he has redefined the economic cycle, he is also likely to get away (for now) without announcing further tax rises, although this seems to be delaying the inevitable and markets will continue to take a rather dim view of the way UK public finances are developing. This evening’s BRC retail survey will be watched closely after the very weak CBI offering last week, to see if there is consistency.

US – the non-manufacturing ISM survey is likely to reveal robust activity and this will underpin US rate expectations and the USD, although the market may be increasingly lookingtowards next week’s FOMC meeting and the possibility of a change of language from the Fed.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US ISM non-manu (Nov) 10.00 59.0
GB UK Pre-Budget Report 10.30
GB BRC retail survey (Nov) y/y 19.01 -0.2% last
AU Housing finance (Oct) m/m 19.30 +1.5%
AU Trade balance (Oct) 19.30 -A$1.45bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Capital spending (Q3) y/y +9.6% +6.8%
AU ANZ job ads (Nov) m/m +0.4% +1.2%R last
IT PMI services (Nov) 54.6 53.2
FR PMI services (Nov) 56.5 56.3
DE PMI services (Nov) 54.8 54.9
EU PMI services (Nov) 55.1 54.7
GB PMI services (Nov) 55.8 56.0
EU Retail sales (Oct) m/m +0.5% +0.5%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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