Wednesday June 30, 2004 - 01:25:43 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for Euro vs US Dollar 30th June 2004 General Outlook
The Dollar made sustantial gains yesterday and while crucial break levels have still to be broken to confirm the reversal, given the weekly cycles are turning bullish we cautiously feel that the long term Dollar rally has resumed. We need to trade the initial stage with a little caution but we feel this rally could well be a strong sustainable movement - the first we have seen during this year. We shall cover this more in the individual analyses.
Again, even against the Japanese Yen the pullback has bitten deeper than expected. Still, a break of 109.40 is required to ocnfirm and while there is risk of seeing a test soon, the first attempt may well fail and cause a pullback. However we should now see 107.00-40 support.
Support....: 1.2100 ... 1.2120 ... 1.2140 ... 1.2160
Resistance: 1.2070 ... 1.2050 ... 1.2030 ... 1.2005
Initially lower to 1.2040-50 followed by a pullback before lower to 1.1970-80
The break below 1.2090 suggests the bullish stance is now inappropriate. As such we find it difficult to see any recovery managing to reach above 1.2120-40 - probably stalling in the 1.2100-20 area. Thus only above 1.2140 would re-instate some strength for a move back to 1.2185 at least and possibly a retest of 1.2227.
The drop below 1.2090 suggests the downside is now highlighted. As such we look for any pullback to remain below 1.2100-20 (stops above 1.2140) and for a move initially down to 1.2040-50. This should cause a further pullback to the 1.2100-20 area before a further leg lower to 1.1973-80. However, once tested we feel this could cause a pullback. Further support is at 1.1830 and 1.1760-70.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."