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Tuesday December 6, 2005 - 10:56:31 GMT
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Weak USD picture beginning to look convincing. Dare we guess that USD/JPY has seen the top for now?

Very quiet couple of days ahead on the US economic data front as anticipation of next Tuesday's FOMC mounts. Bank of Canada up today.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US ISM Non-manufacturing Index for November was out with a reading of 58.5 vs. 59.0 expected
• US Fed's Olson commented that the yield curve was unusual and that it meant low inflationary expectations down the road.
• UK Retail Sales gained in November for the first time in 8 months according to the BRC
• Australia Q4 Industrial Trends Survey showed a bounce from three year lows
• Australia Home Loans increased 1.1% in October vs. 1.5% expected
• Australia Trade Balance for October was -1332M vs. -1450M expected and -1564M in September
• Japan Household Spending (YoY) rose 2.0% vs. 1.8% expected in October, and MoM fell -0.1% vs. -0.2% expected
Market Moves
USD was generally weaker after the US ISM non-manufacturing figures, with EUR/USD trading above 1.1800 briefly. EUR/JPY also rose to new 7-year highs.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The weak USD move here is beginning to look fairly convincing in the broader picture here, with USD/JPY having two days in a row now in which new high levels are having a difficult time holding. AUD/USD has performed a full reversal for the short-term and USD/CAD has plunged to new lows. Now we need the Europeans to have a 1% up day vs. the greenback and the case is sealed. Until then we're cautious, but it should be no secret where our sentiment stands. One key fundamental aspect of the market we would like to see for our weak USD argument is a halt in the rally in US yields. If US yields continue to head higher it may be tough going. Again - currencies and treasuries are a bit intertwined here as we approach the main event with next Tuesday's FOMC meeting.
Today, CAD will certainly be in focus with the BOC expected to hike rates 25 bp to bring the rate to 3.25%. The strong CAD has been perhaps 2005's biggest theme, and as the year draws to a close, we would expect CAD's outperformance to begin to fade. So we may be seeing it's last hurrah here with rates still rising and energy prices high. Look for a weakening USD to be associated with a weakening CAD in the crosses going forward as the North American rate hiking cycle comes to a close further out. Also up for today is Canada's Ivey PMI for November - the index posted a very strong 64.8 reading in October.

Tonight, we'll also have the RBA, which is not expected to move on rates. But the strong metal prices are supporting AUD for the short term and may continue to do so as AUD/USD focuses on 0.7600 and perhaps even more. Look for a cooling of the gold market, though, to be associated with a cooling of AUD in the crosses.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

 

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