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Wednesday December 7, 2005 - 12:21:55 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 07-Dec-2005....1158 GMT

Euro @ 1.1716/19....Either Ranged or Bearish
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.1750-58 / 1.1779 / 1.1796
S: 1.1697-88-77 / 1.1660 / 1.1638
From one point of view, the Euro is currently ranged between 1.1688-1845 for a few days, as mentioned in the morning. From another point of view, the Euro has been sold off above 1.18 on 3 successive Weekly Candles (current one included). PLUS Trend Resistance at 1.19 and 1.1830 (obtained by connecting the 1.2587 High with the 1.2173 High) has held very well. Combining both points of view, the Euro is certainly not bullish at the moment, and might just be biding time before fresh bearishness.

Immediate strategy would be to play the 1.1688-1845 range just now. But, we are staying out.


$-Yen @ 121.08/12....Support 120.57. Resistance 121.45
------------------------------------------------------
R: 121.16 / 121.38-45
S: 120.67-57 / 120.27
The Support at 120.67-57 has held well and the market has moved up since the morning. Resistances, as above. A convincing rise above 121.45 opens up the path towards 123 and 125. On the downside, a convincing fall below 120.57 could take us down towards 119.75


Euro-Yen @ 141.88/93...Holding Long
-----------------------------------
R: 142.08-14 / 142.36-41 /
S: 141.75 / 141.59 / 141.14
Crucial Support at 141.75. Should it break, the Cross may fall towards 141.35 and the upside could come into doubt. For immediate bullishness to come back into force, a rise above 142.14 would be needed. If that happens, levels of 142.40+ could be possible either later today, or tomorrow.

Holding:
EUR 20K Long at 142.17, SL 141.65, TP 142.70. As soon as the market trades 142.40, bring SL up to 141.75.




$-Swiss @ 1.3145/50....Range 1.3035-3217
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.3170 / 1.3217
S: 1.3103 / 1.3062
We'd taken a good Long (in a ranging market) today morning, but underestimated the Dollar's upmove. Further upside potential to 1.3170 exists and if that is also broken, then even 1.3217 cannot be ruled out. That said, the overall range of 1.3217-3035 remains intact. As such, we'd like to sell near the Range Top, if possible.

Order:
Sell $25K at 1.3191, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3111


Cable @ 1.7331/6....Resistance seems strong
--------------------------------------------
R: 1.7354-65 / 1.7400 / 1.7434
S: 1.7280-68 / 1.7210 / 1.7185
The Cable fell straight down since the morning, without bouncing towards 1.7400 and giving any opportunity to sell at a good rate. Not fair, not fair! Jokes apart, there's a good chance of a further fall towards 1.7210-7185 over the next day or two. It would be very helpful and gracious of the market if it remains below 1.7375 in the interim, for above that there'd be danger of it rising to, and past, 1.7450.

Trade:
Sell GBP 15K at current level, SL 1.7394, TP 1.7217




Aussie @ 0.7464/69....Holding Long
--------------------------------
R: 0.7489-95 / 0.7511-18 / 0.7535-45
S: 0.7460-57 / 0.7449-43 / 0.7436
The Aussie has dipped a little more than expected, but still has Support at 0.7457 and 0.7443. A fall below that could take it down towards 0.7400 and we would not want to be holding our current Long position. But, while the Supports hold, there are still chances of fresh buying, which can take the market up towards 0.7500-10 initially and then to yesterday's Top near 0.7535-45

Holding:
AUD 30K Long at 0.7482, SL 0.7445, TP 0.7511




Happy Trading!



 

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