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Thursday December 8, 2005 - 11:10:01 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies

JPY showing signs of a comeback as Japanese stock market fails - EUR/JPY looking like a reversal candidate.

NZD trainwreck may continue to unfold despite another 25 bp RBNZ hike to 7.25%.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• UK BRC Shop Price Index fell -0.80% in November
• US Weekly energy inventories showed better than expected builds in crude oil and products. Energy prices fell on the news.
• US Consumer Credit for October was out at -$7.2B vs. +$5.0B expected
• New Zealand RBNZ hiked its cash target rate 25 bp to 7.25% as expected
• Australia Unemployment Rate for November out at 5.1% vs. 5.2% and Employment Change showed +28k vs. +15k expected. The participation rate was steady at 64.4%.
• Japan October Machine Orders for October out at 4.8% vs. 6.0% expected
• Japan November Machine Tool Orders for November out at 1.3%

Market Moves
NZD continued to weaken while JPY continued to strengthen as key EUR/JPY support at 141.60 failed.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The key focus today would appear to be JPY, as JPY are approaching, or have broken, key levels. Studying a chart of the Nikkei and the JPY rally, one can't help but think there is some kind of symbiosis here. The Nikkei had its worst day in a long time overnight with a drop of -2% at the same time as we're suddenly seeing a big move in the JPY stronger. I don't think it's a coincidence and there could be more to come. The move back below 141.60 in EUR/JPY looks like a key development and if the break holds, we may expect a very large reversal back towards 138.00. Interestingly, 120.50/40 is under pressure in USD/JPY, as we may be seeing a JPY reversal across the board here if that area can't hold.

NZD downside was massive all day yesterday and continued overnight despite yet another hike from the RBNZ. At issue is New Zealand's huge current account deficit, which is a massive 8% of GDP - compared to the US' 6%. We have no reason to expect any end to the NZD downside, though there could be plenty of volatility, so choose entries carefully.

Interesting to see the October US Consumer Credit number out yesterday, which dropped by the largest amount ever. Supposedly the drop was due to a fall in auto loans, and it could therefore be an after effect of all the tumult caused by the hurricanes. But we'll continue to watch indicators like this going forward as we wonder what the effects of a slowing housing market will be on the US consumer and when the US consumption juggernaut will slow.
In the meantime, it looks like the market still wants more USD despite all of our previous arguments for USD downside, and a break below 1.1640 in EUR/USD will require that we follow where it takes us. The picture now may be dominated by JPY pairs, however.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

 

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