Thursday December 8, 2005 - 11:45:48 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Dollar corrective catalysts...
“Disputes with men, pertinaciously obstinate in their principles, are, of all others, the most irksome; except, perhaps, those with persons, entirely disingenuous, who really do not believe the opinions they defend, but engage in the controversy, from affection, from a spirit of opposition, or from a desire of showing wit and ingenuity, superior to the rest of mankind.”
This makes some sense to us. It comes via perma-bears Comstock Partners:
“For a number of reasons, we believe that the market surge is not sustainable. First, the year-end rally has been so widely publicized and expected, that it is highly likely it almost over, and that what we’ve seen is what we get. Second, there are already clear indications that the underlying foundation of the economy is now weakening and will soften further in the months ahead. Although this will lead to an end of the Fed interest rate hikes, the softer economy or outright recession that follows has not been discounted by the market. Third, the market remains highly overvalued and sentiment is at high levels.”
The S&P 500 is looking a bit dicey, as you can see in the chart below. The set up is a very nasty Doji candle (if you’re into that type of thing, as we are):
Anchored firmly on the frontal lobe of most worriers’ minds is the housing market. And the evidence on the ground is beginning to square with the evidence in the chart. Investors (read Nasdaq-like day traders before March 2000) are having home “flipping” troubles lately.
The Journal provided this tidbit from a real estate broker in Stuart, Florida, a town just east of the thriving metropolis that is Palm City, which is home to the illustrious worldwide headquarters of Black Swan Capital:
“Last year, Mike Morgan, a real-estate broker in Stuart, Fla., set up a Web site designed to attract investors scouring the Internet for preconstruction properties. But with the market softening, Mr. Morgan has cut back on promoting his site. Now, he works only with investors seeking ‘buy and hold’ properties. ‘I haven't sold an investor a property to flip since June,’ he says.”
And the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index seems to be validating the slowdown in housing. Near-term, it seems quite an ugly chart:
Is there a point here that has anything to do with currencies? Glad you asked!
Dollar sentiment is very strong. Dollar bulls, once a lonely in-the-closet breed, are seemingly everywhere. They are happy and proud to be riding the dollar rally, because after all they “expected” it—just ask them if you don’t believe it. And though we have been out-of-the-closet dollar bulls for longer than most, and can easily make the case for another leg up in the dollar (and we have in this publication), we think it’s about time for the market to shake off some of the Johnny-Come-Lately dollar bull riders.
The rationale behind a dollar correction seems to be forming: The ECB might just continue to hike (decent economic news or at least less bad flowing from the region), Japan is hinting it’s getting closer to tightening and the US Fed needs to worry about the housing market, so just maybe they will pause.
Whether anything in the paragraph above is true is no matter. What matters is whether or not any or all of the rationales in the paragraph above morph into expectations; we think some or all of it will. So, we lay down are money and we take our chances.
Black Swan Capital
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