Thursday December 8, 2005 - 16:18:28 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
FOREX GVI Monthly Forex Survey Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar was now almost neutral against the euro. The three month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.1764 from 1.2143 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (December 6 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.1795.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) turned virtually neutral the EUR/USD to 49 from 63 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast improved significantly to 120.14 from 113.00 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 120.78. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned neutral. It was 48 from 26.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $59.69 in three months time from the current spot vs. the previous $57.98 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked when they felt the European Central Bank would next raise interest rates. Forty-nine percent expect a move in 1Q06. Thirty-four percent expect a change in 2Q06, and the balance expected a hike after 2Q06.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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