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Friday December 9, 2005 - 12:54:13 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD fails to build on yesterday’s gains. Market is essentially waiting for Tuesday’s FOMC meeting.
• NZD steadier but upside limited ahead of Tuesday’s retail sales.
• French manufacturing output falls sharply. US Michigan sentiment features today.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has failed to build any further on the rally seen yesterday and the 1.1700-1.1900 area should continue to hold things ahead of the FOMC meeting. There is a slight risk to the top end of this range ahead of Tuesday, although beyond that there is every chance of a resumption of USD strength. A change of language regarding the “accommodation removal” and “measured” terminology is a possibility, although even if this does occur the Fed is likely to leave the impression that further tightening is likely. This would lay the foundations for a further USD rally going into year-end. A key mover yesterday was cable, which broke above a trendline that runs back to the beginning of September. However, while this leaves some element of upside risk in the very short-term we would be reluctant to hold short USD positions through Tuesday’s meeting. A similar line comes in on EUR-USD around 1.1850.

Japanese GDP was a little disappointing and this provided support for USD-JPY, although it remains within recent ranges. 120.00-121.40 needs to break to suggest some fresh direction. Upside is favoured after the FOMC.

The NZD has crept higher against the USD, although 0.7050-80 should cap it ahead of Tuesday night’s retail sales data. Data will be key in the short-term in driving sentiment about which scenario is about to materialise - further rate rises or the downside economic risks the RBNZ referred to yesterday.

Data this morning included a very sharp fall in French manufacturing output. There were no special factors cited by the stats office and another month of data is needed before casting any firm judgements on the underlying trend. The NOK was largely unaffected by a slightly weaker than expected Norwegian CPI. The Norges Bank meet next week but are likely to leave rates unchanged, otherwise they would be violating the “small, not too frequent steps” approach to tightening reiterated on November 2 when they last raised rates. However, there is a risk of accelerated tightening in the New Year. UK trade deficits were lower than expected but GBP impact was minimal, with the market not really focussed on trade at the present time.

Day Ahead
US – the University of Michigan measure of national consumer sentiment is due today and a recovery is likely after the weakness seen in recent months.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Capacity utilisation (Q3) 08.30 87.0%
CA Productivity (Q3) q/q 08.30 +0.5%
US Michigan sentiment (Dec, prel) 09.45 85.0

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP GDP (Q3) q/q +0.2% +0.5%
DE WPI (Nov) y/y +2.2% +2.7% last
DE Trade balance (Oct) €12.2bn €14.1bn
DE Exports (Oct) m/m -0.6% +2.5% last
DE Current account (Oct) €6.4bn €7.0bn
FR Ind prod (Oct) m/m -2.5% +0.2%
FR Manu output (Oct) m/m -2.4% 0.0%
SE AMS unemployment rate (Nov) 4.9% 4.9%
NO CPI (Nov) y/y +1.8% +1.8%
NO CPIX (Nov) y/y +1.1% +1.2%
GB Global trade balance (Oct) -£4.6bn -£5.3bn
GB Non-EU trade balance (Oct) -£2.2bn -£2.4bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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