Thursday January 11, 2018 - 12:11:38 GMT
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EURUSD Trapped in a Range But for How Long?
EURUSD, having failed to test the 2017 high at 1.2092, falling 3 pips shy of it, has gone onto retreat. While a case can be made for 1.1817, the news related spike yesterday, which took out weak buy stops but failed to hold 1.20+, might be enough to keep it in a range ahead of the long US holiday weekend.
One look at this Amazing Trader one hour chart shows the higher lows and lower highs (we call them rungs on a ladder) at 1.1915-23 and 1.2007-18, respectively, which sent signals for a risk up to 1.20+ initially and then down after 1.20+ failed to hold.
To pick the side most vulnerable, the onus would seem to be on the bull side to establish 1.20+ over the coming days or face a risk of likely stops below 1.1915.
Bottom line, expect more choppy trading as the market decides on whether to trade 1.19-1.21 with limited follow through unless either side of 1.1915-1.2018 is taken out.
In the meantime, keep an eye on EUR crosses (e.g. EURGBP and EURJPY) as they seem to be driving the EURUSD pair more than vs. the USD.
Amazing Trader levels:
1.1929, 1.1923, 1.1925 (then a void to 1.1817)
1.1970, 1.2007,1.2018, 1.2052
Moving average level: 1.1919 = 20 day mva
Event risk: German coalition talks today
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