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Monday December 12, 2005 - 12:13:12 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 12-Dec-2005....1151 GMT

Euro @ 1.1886/89....Breaking out on the upside
---------------------------------------------------
R: 1.1885/ 1.1904-15 / 1.1965-69
S: 1.1868 / 1.1850 / 1.1835-25
The Euro has risen past 1.1850. The statistically projected Max High for today at 1.1885 poses some Resistance, and then the 28-Nov High at 1.1904. If these are broken, the Euro will probably have made a bottom and could head up towards 1.20. While the 1.1885-1904 Resistance holds, a dip back towards 1.1850 and lower could take place.


$-Yen @ 120.50/54....Holding Short
----------------------------------------
R: 120.61-68 / 120.94 / 121.08
S: 120.40-30 / 120.24 / 120.17-10
Dollar-Yen dipped to 120.40 during the day and has bounced from there. While below 120.95, there are still chances of further fall towards 120.30-10. Below 120.10 implies 119.72

Holding:
$25K Short at 120.76, SL 120.96 (down from 121.19), TP 120.35


Euro-Yen @ 143.25/30....Buy dip
-----------------------------------
R: 143.60 / 143.83 / 144.09
S: 143.03 / 142.83-72 / 142.52-43
The Cross has risen well through the day today and should target 144 and higher over the course of the week. Supports and Resistances as above.

Order:
Buy EUR 20K at 143.00, SL 142.70, TP 144.00




$-Swiss @ 1.2957/62....Bearish now?
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2985-90 / 1.3021 / 1.3070
S: 1.2945-38 / 1.2865
The Uptrend that started from 1.2238 on 05-Sep has been broken. A fall towards 1.2865 or even 1.2807 is technically possible over the course of the week if strong selling comes in after the FOMC meeting. For today, 1.2945-38 is the Max Low for the day. Selling near 1.3003 (in case of a bounce tonight) may be considered, with Stop above 1.3075. We shall not take the trade, though.

The market is now positioned more or less Short Dollar ahead of the FOMC. In case the Dollar falls more ahead of the meeting, we may well anticipate some Short covering after the meeting.


Cable @ 1.7639/44...Buy on dip
------------------------------
R: 1.7662 / 1.7716
S: 1.7595-72 / 1.7550-47
The strong rise past 1.7570 today suggests that 1.77 and 1.78 may be seen this week. That said, although the pair might trade with bullish bias, it may not rise above 1.7662 today itself. Support at 1.7595-72 is strong enough to attract buying in case of dips. A fall below 1.7572 may still find support at 1.7547. A fall below 1.7547 could imply a deeper fall towards 1.7480.

Order:
Buy GBP 15K at 1.7580, SL 1.7545, TP 1.7660.




Aussie @ 0.7520/25....Holding Long
------------------------------------------
R: 0.7535-40 / 0.7584 / 0.7615
S: 0.7495-90 / 0.7485 / 0.7470
Rallied to 0.7540 during the day, but was unable to sustain the rise. Unless it moves back up above 0.7530 in the US session there would be danger/ chances of a dip toward 0.7495-90 before fresh buying comes in. A rise past 0.7540, of course, targets 0.7570 and possibly higher. That said, a rise past 0.7540 looks a little difficult for today at least, maybe even tomorrow.

Holding:
AUD 30K Long at 0.7481, TSL 0.7501, TP 0.7530

Order:
Buy AUD 30K at 0.7495, SL 0.7475, TP 07530.




Happy Trading!

 

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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
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