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Wednesday June 30, 2004 - 11:36:09 GMT -

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Dollar: A volatile range into the apex creates large wicks on the euro candlesticks

DailyFX Technical Report 6-30-2004

Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has begun to get rather ornery as the battle for supremacy between market participants plays out. A 150-pip range has violently funneled the price into the apex of the symmetrical triangle formation leaving us to deduce that an ominous and momentous event is impending for this pair. Oscillators across intraday and daily scope register underlying neutrality in price action while a convergence of the 100 and 200-day EMA and SMA's come to amalgamation. Intraday pivot S/R are indicative of 1.2229 and 1.2123 as provisional significance.

Intraday USD/JPY studies reveal a great propensity for an oversold condition as the pair rises rapidly towards the 50% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (109.20). The pair has bulled through the 200-day SMA (108. 60) and now has the 100-day SMA (109.05) and EMA (109.45) set in the crosshairs. The 50% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (109.20) seems daunting for the bulls however, as the level created various instances of support and resistance throughout the month of June and early May. The 240-minute MACD histogram (0.12) looks tired while the RSI (65.23) and stochastic (92.3) have hit local highs respectively.

The GBP/USD presently rests on the confluence of the 100-day EMA and the monthly pivot level (1.8080). As we noted yesterday we feel that this level is rather pivotal for the pair and it comes of little surprise that market participants brought it to this echelon at this particular moment. The 38.2% retracement of 1.9125-1.17490 and intra-day lows made on 6/14 and 6/24 (1.8115) have been eyed as the next significant level on the support side. However, the significance of the level makes it very sensitive leaving us to believe that if the region were traded through a large move might ensue. Our proprietary S/R and intraday pivot support are indicative of 1.1780/90 as key levels on the downside. Key resistance has been eyed at the 50% retracement of the most recent spike and dip of the last 24 hours just below the psychological big figure of 1.8200. Beyond that we have the 50% retracement of 1.9125-1.17490 (1.8305) seems fairly significant, as the rally had failed here 1200 GMT on 6/28

It seems the USD/CHF, has found a fair evaluation ahead of key events in N. America. The bulls' strength was due in part to the inverted head and shoulders spanning the intraday charts and has closed the gap significantly between the 100 and 200-day MA's. The synthetic has now sold of slightly as it made a brief foray above key fib and the regression macro trend upper band and intermediate regression trend lower band. The moment of truth awaits the pair and the technical studies indicate the next few sessions should be momentous. Intra-day pivot tables are indicative of resistance near 1.2720 while our proprietary S/R levels come in a bit lower (1.2693). The intraday pivot tables note resistance at 1.2520/35 and 1.2410 respectively.


Comment from 06/09
On 05/18 GBPJPY had a high at 202.94 (slightly below our 203.00/50 area) and found the 199.46 Low on 05/21 (348pts lower) shortly afterwards. The outlook is once again positive for the cross. A clear bullish channel is actually visible. Bulls will then step in at 199.30/80 in order to exploit the ST Trend S, Low BB and 76.4% Fibo from the Nov 01 - 04 bull wave. Below, bulls will also watch the 197.00/50 area thanks to the 100 and 50 SMA, former breakout pt now S and 76.4% Fibo from the 01 - 04 bull wave. Above, aggressive bears might pick the 205.80/206.40 area in order to exploit the intermediate swing high, High BB and 61.8% Fibo from the 98 - 00 bear wave. However, the key test for the Sterling will be 207.50/208, the March Swing High.

The uptrend did not hold but GBPJPY had lows between 198.88 & 199.96 from 06/09 to 06/17. Intraday rallies occurred from the lows each day and the cross broke S shortly after. 197.00/50 offered intermediate S (low at 97.35 on 06/22 - high at 99.11 on 06/23). The outlook is now neutral since the pair is stuck between key Fib zones. Aggressive bears will step in at 98.00/50 in order to exploit the 100 SMA and 20 EMA. A better entry higher should be 200.50/201 thanks to the former breakout pt now R and 23.6% Fibo from the Oct - Mar bull wave. Another level to keep in mind for the bears will be 205.50/206 thanks to the high BB, swing High and 61.8% Fibo from the 98 - 00 bear wave. Bulls do not have a lot of decent risk to reward entries but 193.20/70 will attract range players thanks to the Low BB, 200 SMA and a strong Fibo confluence (50% Fibo from the Aug 02 - Feb 04 bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the 00 - 04 bull wave). A sustained breakout below would put 190 back in the picture.


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