Tuesday December 13, 2005 - 13:12:39 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 13-Dec-2005.... 1245 GMT
Euro @ 1.1922/5....Either 1.1975 or 1.1875
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R: 1.1975-85 / 1.2021-41
S: 1.1908 / 1.1885 / 1.1865-55
The Euro has dipped intra-day, but has found Support (so far) above 1.1908, as per expectation. This Support may/ may not break in the US hours. If it does, deeper Support at 1.1885, or maybe even 1.1865, could be tested. Confusion may be created in case of a fall to/ test of 1.1885-65.
If the Euro remains steadfast above 1.1910, it may try to move back up towards 1.1975 and higher.
$-Yen @ 120.27/31....Watch Resistance at 120.49
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R: 120.49-56 / 121.00
S: 120.06 / 119.73-71 / 119.54-42
Dollar-Yen has bounced well from 119.75-50. Immediate Resistance at 120.45. If that is broken, a further rally towards 121.00 might be seen. NOTE, however, that 120.49 is the statistically projected Max High for the day. In case of a rise to 121.00, the overall uptrend would remain intact. Only a fall below 119.50 now would trigger a downmove towards 118.00.
We'd like to wait to see the market's reaction to the FOMC meeting tonight before getting into the market again.
Euro-Yen @ 143.41/46....Bullish, look to buy
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R: 143.61-65 / 143.83-86
S: 143.05-00 / 142.70
Finding Support at 143.05-00. While it holds, the Cross has decent chances of moving up towards 144.00 over the course of the week. For today, we have Resistances as above. In case Support at 143.00 is broken, deeper and stronger Support at 142.70 may be tested.
We made a mistake in the morning. Our Buy Order at 143.00 has not been triggered and we do not have a Long position right now.
Order:
Buy EUR 20K at 142.83, SL 142.46, TP 143.80
$-Swiss @ 1.2942/47....Either 1.2890 or 1.2990
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R: 1.2958 / 1.2989-3003
S: 1.2914 / 1.2890 / 1.2866-59
Has found Support at 1.2866 so far today. A further rally towards 1.2990-3000 cannot be ruled. For the new found bearishness to reinforce itself, it will be imperative that the Dollar is sold off again from the 1.2990-3000 region. A rise past that would bring confusion back into the market.
On the downside, a fall below the immediate Support at 1.2914 in the US session would suggest a further dip to 1.2890. We don't have a clear trade and hence choose to stay out.
Cable @ 1.7680/85....Looking to buy
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R: 1.7709-19 / 1.7775-85
S: 1.7647 / 1.7620 / 1.7597
The Cable has fallen below 1.7705 and into the 1.7705-7642 region mentioned in the morning. A further dip towards 1.7630-20 or even 1.7600 cannot be ruled out. One may either buy on such a dip or into a fresh upmove from here.
Order:
Buy GBP 15K at 1.7640, SL 1.7590, TP 1.7730
OR
Buy GBP 15K at 1.7729, SL 1.7650, TP open. As soon as the market trades 1.7750 after Entry, bring SL up to 1.7685.
Aussie @ 0.7537/42....Holding Long
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R: 0.7553 / 0.7573-80 / 0.7599
S: 0.7533 / 0.7527-15 / 0.7505
Has found Support at 0.7533 so far. Important Support at 0.7527-15. While above these we would look for the Aussie to move up again and target 0.7600 and higher. In case of a fall below 0.7527-15, a further decline towards 0.7490-85 might be possible.
Holding:
AUD 30K Long at 0.7561, SL 0.7509, TP 0.7600 (down from 0.7630).
Happy Trading!
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