Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 08:47:39 GMT
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CMC Markets - www.cmcmarkets.com
FOMC consolidates recent dollar losses; Tankan buoys Yen.
December 14th - Yesterday’s FOMC verdict on interest rates – and perhaps more importantly the accompanying comments – were widely awaited by currency traders and although the 25 basis point hike was already factored into prices, the indication that this hawkish stance over monetary policy might not have too long left has resulted in consolidation of the dollar’s recent move downward. Furthermore, a bullish outlook for the Japanese economy – communicated in the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey – has seen the Yen rally through the Asian session, breaking below 118 against the dollar and touching levels not seen since the end of November. The US trade balance reading is the next key piece of information due for release and expectations here are for a small contraction in the deficit. Failure to realise this may well leave the greenback under further pressure although the fact that oil prices sat at softer levels through November is likely to offer some support here. Following from this, crude inventory data due today also stands to offer some direction, as will tomorrow’s weekly jobless claims, but unless there’s some surprise change in sentiment the dollar may well hold these lower levels in the near term.
Tim Wilbraham and Enis Mehmet
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