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Wednesday December 14, 2005 - 11:21:23 GMT
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JPY teaches the market a lesson overnight even on a Tankan survey that didn't meet expectations. FOMC statement slightly on the dovish side of expectations.

Fed nixes the word "accommodative" to describe current rate environment, but leaves room for movement ahead. US Trade Balance up today.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Fed increased Fed Funds rate 25 bp to 4.25% as expected. The Fed altered its monetary policy statement, removing the word "accommodative", and saying that "some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed to keep the risks....roughly in balance".
• Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence fell 2.7% in December
• Japan Tankan Survey for Q4 out at 21 vs. 23 expected for large manufacturers and 17 as expected for the non-manufacturing sector.
• Actual China Foreign Direct Investment shrank -1.9% in November on a year-on-year basis, while Contract FDI grew 24% year-on-year.
• China Retail Sales grew 12.4% on a year-on-year basis in November vs. 13.0% expected
Market Moves: The JPY strengthened overnight across the board, while USD and AUD were weak.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Well - the cat is out of the bag now that we have the freshly minted FOMC statement - which was generally in line with our expectations of a statement that would remove some of the restrictive language (describing current rates as "accommodative") and increase flexibility going forward (the part about "some further firming" being a bit wishy washy). So what do we do now? Very appropriate that this week we see a triad of data related to the "skeletons in the closet" for the US dollar - the current account imbalance. Today we have the Trade Balance for October, expected to be the second-highest ever. Tomorrow we have the Net Foreign Securities Purchases data (so-called TICS data) for October, and on Friday we have the US Q3 Current Account Balance - expected at -$205 billion, which would be the largest deficit ever recorded. Add to this the fact that the recent budget statement showed one of the biggest budget shortfalls ever and a developing theme if we've neutralized the whole interest rate theme for now may revert to "global imbalances."

And highly relevant to global imbalances going forward is the situation with the Chinese economy, where the leadership seems to be increasingly recognizing the need to choke off further capacity expansion and increase consumption to ward of a hard landing or "bust cycle". One of the best ways to do this would be to let that Yuan float and strengthen. Will we begin to see the stirrings of activity on this issue soon?

Finally, the JPY unwinding overnight looks key - and was triggered by an overpositioned market rather than the Tankan survey, which was mostly inline to slightly disappointed. The JPY may begin to make waves across the board as the whole carry trade circus may be about to unwind. We may be a bit early on this, but we think the overnight action was a significant shot across the bow. The USD/JPY sell-off stopped at 118.50, but a move below 118.30/40 brings on a test of 116.70 and even 116.00.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.



 

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